ScoreProb
FKF Premier League Kenya Round 6 2026

Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth

Mara Sugar Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Migori Youth Away · Elo 1,628
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Mara Sugar win
30.4%
DrawPick
35.8%
Migori Youth win
33.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.534.5%
Under 2.565.5%

How much we know

Mara Sugar history54 matches
Migori Youth history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Migori Youth are rated 127 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,628 against 1,501. On rating alone Migori Youth would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Migori Youth score more

    0.91 goals a game over 54 matches for Mara Sugar, against 1.26 over 57 for Migori Youth.

  • Migori Youth concede fewer

    Mara Sugar concede 1.04 a game, Migori Youth 0.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    30% of Mara Sugar matches, against 33% for Migori Youth. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mara Sugar
Migori Youth@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.6
ELO
1628.0
54
ELO · Matches
57
1500.6
Current Team ELO
1628.0
1628.0
Current Opponent ELO
1500.6
-127.4
Current ELO Difference
127.4
0.32
Expected score
0.68
54
History Matches
57
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.11
49.61
Overperformance
58.33
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.30
0.70
Goals for per game
1.40
0.70
Goals against per game
0.50
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.46
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
0.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
57
1.17
PPG
1.89
24.1%
Win rate
56.1%
44.4%
Draw rate
21.1%
31.5%
Loss rate
22.8%
57.4%
Over 1.5 rate
52.6%
29.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
28
1.28
PPG
1.54
28.0%
Win rate
46.4%
44.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
28.0%
Loss rate
39.3%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
25
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.91
Goals for per game
1.26
63.0%
Scoring rate
73.7%
46.3%
BTTS rate
36.8%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.14
48.0%
Scoring rate
64.3%
32.0%
BTTS rate
32.1%
54
History Matches
57
0.91
Goals Mean
1.26
0.91
Goals Std
1.13
63.0%
Scored 1+ rate
73.7%
20.4%
Scored 2+ rate
31.6%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.04
Goals against per game
0.74
64.8%
Conceding rate
52.6%
0.64
Goals against per game
0.93
52.0%
Conceding rate
57.1%
54
History Matches
57
1.04
Conceded Mean
0.74
1.05
Conceded Std
0.83
24.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.5%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.5%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.4%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
52.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.4%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
52.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
57
0.97
Result entropy
0.90
1.26
Goal Difference Std
1.37
2.87
Stability score
9.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
53
8
Lead Matches
22
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
11
28.6%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.32
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
160.0
Rest days
147.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
31
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.97
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.42
Portability PPG Range
0.66
72.67
Portability Score
60.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-127.4
PPG-0.73
GF-0.36
GA0.30
PPG-0.26
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate16.3%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.66
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate6.5%
Conceded 3+ rate7.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-7.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.38
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate10.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.24
Portability Score12.36
Rest days12.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Current Team ELO-127.4
Current Opponent ELO127.4
Current ELO Difference-254.8
Expected score-0.35
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mara Sugar

L
Tusker3–1Mara Sugar2 Nov · away
Pick: Tusker 42% · hit
D
Ulinzi Stars0–0Mara Sugar24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
W
Mara Sugar2–1Mombasa Elite19 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Migori Youth

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Mara Sugar and Migori Youth meet in FKF Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mara Sugar win 30.4%, draw 35.8%, Migori Youth win 33.9%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 34.5%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.