Abha vs Al Shabab
Abha
Postponed
Thu 5 Nov
Was due at 17:00 UTC
Al Shabab
Match result probability Model pick: Abha win
Abha winPick
39.1%
Draw
23.0%
Al Shabab win
37.9%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes59.3%
No40.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%
How much we know
Abha history56 matches
Al Shabab history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Kickoff5 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Abha are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Abha are rated 74 Elo points higher
Elo 1,583 against 1,509. On rating alone Abha would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.63 goals a game over 56 matches for Abha, against 1.73 over 70 for Al Shabab.
-
Abha concede fewer
Abha concede 1.04 a game, Al Shabab 1.53.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
54% of Abha matches, against 54% for Al Shabab. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Abha
Al Shabab
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1583.4
ELO
1509.5
56
ELO · Matches
70
1583.4
Current Team ELO
1509.5
1509.5
Current Opponent ELO
1583.4
73.94
Current ELO Difference
-73.94
0.60
Expected score
0.40
56
History Matches
70
0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
55.47
Overperformance
50.66
-0.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.50
0.70
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
70
1.89
PPG
1.31
53.6%
Win rate
32.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
32.9%
17.9%
Loss rate
34.3%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
34
1.86
PPG
0.97
51.7%
Win rate
17.6%
31.0%
Draw rate
44.1%
17.2%
Loss rate
38.2%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
29
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.63
Goals for per game
1.73
85.7%
Scoring rate
81.4%
58.9%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.21
89.7%
Scoring rate
70.6%
62.1%
BTTS rate
64.7%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
56
History Matches
70
1.63
Goals Mean
1.73
1.03
Goals Std
1.82
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
53.6%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
21.4%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.53
66.1%
Conceding rate
75.7%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.44
69.0%
Conceding rate
85.3%
2.33
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
56
History Matches
70
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.07
Conceded Std
1.34
23.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.9%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
70
0.91
Result entropy
1.00
1.58
Goal Difference Std
2.36
8.98
Stability score
0.02
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
56
Eligible Matches
70
23
Lead Matches
18
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.87
14
Trailing Matches
25
42.9%
Non-loss rate
24.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.04
Rest days
71.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
13
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.23
37
Normal Rest History Matches
41
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
0.67
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
6
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.83
Portability PPG Std
0.77
2.02
Portability PPG Range
2.33
37.69
Portability Score
39.25
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO73.94
PPG0.58
GF-0.10
GA-0.49
PPG-0.33
PPG0.89
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.79
Scored 1+ rate4.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.78
Stability score8.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate18.9%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.31
Portability Score-1.56
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-12
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.64
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO73.94
Current Opponent ELO-73.94
Current ELO Difference147.9
Expected score0.21
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.47
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Abha
L
Abha0–1Al-Faisaly FC27 Oct · home
Pick: Abha 48% · missed L
NEOM2–0Abha24 Oct · away
Pick: NEOM 62% · hit L
Al-Qadisiyah FC2–1Abha16 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 67% · hit D
Abha1–1Al Khaleej Saihat25 Aug · home
Pick: Abha 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Al Shabab
W
Al Shabab6–1Al-Ahli Jeddah30 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% · missed W
Al-Fateh1–3Al Shabab22 Oct · away
Pick: Al Shabab 46% · hit D
Al Shabab2–2Al-Faisaly FC19 Oct · home
Pick: Al Shabab 55% · missed D
Al-Hazm1–1Al Shabab30 Aug · away
Pick: Al-Hazm 51% · missed D
Al Shabab3–3Al Riyadh25 Aug · home
Pick: Al Shabab 61% · missed About this match
Abha and Al Shabab were due to play in Pro League on Thursday 5 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.