Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah
Al-Faisaly FC
Postponed
Thu 5 Nov
Was due at 17:00 UTC
Al Diriyah
Match result probability Model pick: Al Diriyah win
Al-Faisaly FC win
38.3%
Draw
23.2%
Al Diriyah winPick
38.5%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes59.7%
No40.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%
How much we know
Al-Faisaly FC history54 matches
Al Diriyah history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Kickoff5 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Al Diriyah are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,579 against 1,596. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Al Diriyah score more
1.81 goals a game over 54 matches for Al-Faisaly FC, against 2.24 over 37 for Al Diriyah.
-
Al Diriyah concede fewer
Al-Faisaly FC concede 1.37 a game, Al Diriyah 1.22.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
65% of Al-Faisaly FC matches, against 68% for Al Diriyah. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Faisaly FC
Al Diriyah
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1579.3
ELO
1595.5
54
ELO · Matches
37
1579.3
Current Team ELO
1595.5
1595.5
Current Opponent ELO
1579.3
-16.20
Current ELO Difference
16.20
0.48
Expected score
0.52
54
History Matches
37
0.07
Residual Mean
0.14
55.08
Overperformance
58.78
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.90
2.30
Goals for per game
1.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals 90
54
Matches
37
1.63
PPG
2.03
44.4%
Win rate
62.2%
29.6%
Draw rate
16.2%
25.9%
Loss rate
21.6%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.2%
64.8%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
45.9%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
17
1.35
PPG
1.82
34.6%
Win rate
52.9%
30.8%
Draw rate
23.5%
34.6%
Loss rate
23.5%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
76.5%
42.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
26
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.81
Goals for per game
2.24
81.5%
Scoring rate
94.6%
59.3%
BTTS rate
62.2%
1.58
Goals for per game
2.12
69.2%
Scoring rate
94.1%
53.8%
BTTS rate
70.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
37
1.81
Goals Mean
2.24
1.38
Goals Std
1.40
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
94.6%
57.4%
Scored 2+ rate
62.2%
24.1%
Scored 3+ rate
37.8%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
2.12
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.22
70.4%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.41
73.1%
Conceding rate
76.5%
3.00
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
37
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.22
1.18
Conceded Std
1.17
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
5.4%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
5.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
5.4%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
5.9%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
54
History Matches
37
0.97
Result entropy
0.84
1.86
Goal Difference Std
2.03
2.53
Stability score
16.11
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
37
20
Lead Matches
17
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
94.1%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.96
12
Trailing Matches
12
33.3%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.32
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
75.96
Rest days
76.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.38
15
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.53
Portability PPG Std
—
1.06
Portability PPG Range
—
48.57
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
54
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-16.20
PPG-0.40
GF-0.43
GA0.15
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.48
PPG-0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate13.1%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate24.9%
History Matches17
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches17
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-13.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO-16.20
Current Opponent ELO16.20
Current ELO Difference-32.39
Expected score-0.05
History Matches17
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-3.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al-Faisaly FC
L
Al-Fayha4–1Al-Faisaly FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Fayha 49% · hit W
Abha0–1Al-Faisaly FC27 Oct · away
Pick: Abha 48% · missed L
Al-Faisaly FC1–3Al-Nassr23 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Nassr 73% · hit D
Al Shabab2–2Al-Faisaly FC19 Oct · away
Pick: Al Shabab 55% · missed W
Al-Faisaly FC3–2Al Kholood15 Oct · home
Pick: Al Kholood 39% · missed Al Diriyah
L
Al Diriyah1–2NEOM30 Oct · home
Pick: NEOM 48% · hit L
Al-Ittihad FC2–0Al Diriyah23 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 59% · hit W
Al Diriyah1–0Al Riyadh20 Oct · home
Pick: Al Diriyah 62% · hit D
Al Diriyah1–1Al Taawon17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Diriyah 44% · missed W
Al-Ettifaq0–3Al Diriyah29 Aug · away
Pick: Al-Ettifaq 59% · missed About this match
Al-Faisaly FC and Al Diriyah were due to play in Pro League on Thursday 5 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.