Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr
Al-Hazm
Postponed
Thu 5 Nov
Was due at 17:00 UTC
Al-Nassr
Match result probability Model pick: Al-Nassr win
Al-Hazm win
17.8%
Draw
19.0%
Al-Nassr winPick
63.2%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes55.1%
No44.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%
How much we know
Al-Hazm history60 matches
Al-Nassr history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Kickoff5 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Al-Nassr are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al-Nassr are rated 189 Elo points higher
Elo 1,725 against 1,536. On rating alone Al-Nassr would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.
-
Al-Nassr score far more
1.35 goals a game over 60 matches for Al-Hazm, against 2.61 over 80 for Al-Nassr.
-
Al-Nassr concede fewer
Al-Hazm concede 1.48 a game, Al-Nassr 0.96.
-
Al-Nassr games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Al-Hazm matches, against 71% for Al-Nassr. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Hazm
Al-Nassr
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1535.8
ELO
1725.0
60
ELO · Matches
80
1535.8
Current Team ELO
1725.0
1725.0
Current Opponent ELO
1535.8
-189.2
Current ELO Difference
189.2
0.25
Expected score
0.75
60
History Matches
80
0.03
Residual Mean
0.14
52.30
Overperformance
61.07
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
2.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals 90
60
Matches
80
1.47
PPG
2.26
41.7%
Win rate
72.5%
21.7%
Draw rate
8.8%
36.7%
Loss rate
18.8%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.8%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.3%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
52.5%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
40
1.73
PPG
2.25
53.3%
Win rate
72.5%
13.3%
Draw rate
7.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
20.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.5%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
57.5%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
30
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.35
Goals for per game
2.61
73.3%
Scoring rate
95.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
52.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.65
73.3%
Scoring rate
95.0%
56.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
3.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
60
History Matches
80
1.35
Goals Mean
2.61
1.09
Goals Std
1.55
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
95.0%
43.3%
Scored 2+ rate
77.5%
15.0%
Scored 3+ rate
43.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
2.65
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.48
Goals against per game
0.96
83.3%
Conceding rate
55.0%
1.43
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
60
History Matches
80
1.48
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.12
Conceded Std
1.07
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.8%
15.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
1.43
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
60
History Matches
80
0.97
Result entropy
0.69
1.77
Goal Difference Std
2.05
3.15
Stability score
30.81
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
60
Eligible Matches
80
16
Lead Matches
47
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
91.5%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.93
16
Trailing Matches
10
37.5%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
1.19
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.43
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.96
Rest days
71.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
14
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.21
34
Normal Rest History Matches
52
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.19
18
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.54
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
3.00
33.3%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.67
6
Competition Season Count
10
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.67
0.79
Portability PPG Range
2.00
60.17
Portability Score
42.74
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
60
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-189.2
PPG-0.80
GF-1.26
GA0.52
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.52
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate21.7%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Failed-to-score rate21.7%
History Matches-20
Goals Mean-1.26
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.34
Scored 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Goals Mean-1.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.52
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Conceded 2+ rate12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches-20
Result entropy0.28
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-27.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-31
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-1.21
Portability Score17.44
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Current Team ELO-189.2
Current Opponent ELO189.2
Current ELO Difference-378.4
Expected score-0.50
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al-Hazm
L
Al Khaleej Saihat4–2Al-Hazm29 Oct · away
Pick: Al Khaleej Saihat 44% · hit D
Al-Hazm2–2Al-Fayha22 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Hazm 46% · missed L
Al-Hilal Saudi FC1–0Al-Hazm19 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% · hit L
Al-Hazm2–3Al-Fateh15 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Hazm 56% · missed D
Al-Hazm1–1Al Shabab30 Aug · home
Pick: Al-Hazm 51% · missed Al-Nassr
W
Pakhtakor2–6Al-Nassr2 Nov · away
Pick: Al-Nassr 46% · hit W
Al-Nassr5–3Al Kholood29 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Nassr 68% · hit W
Al-Faisaly FC1–3Al-Nassr23 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Nassr 73% · hit W
Al-Nassr1–0NEOM20 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Nassr 66% · hit W
Al-Nassr3–1Neftchi12 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Nassr 64% · hit About this match
Al-Hazm and Al-Nassr were due to play in Pro League on Thursday 5 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.