Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Postponed
Thu 5 Nov
Was due at 17:00 UTC
Al Taawon
Match result probability Model pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah win
Al-Ahli Jeddah winPick
66.7%
Draw
23.0%
Al Taawon win
10.3%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes53.0%
No47.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.565.1%
Under 2.534.9%
How much we know
Al-Ahli Jeddah history89 matches
Al Taawon history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Kickoff5 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al-Ahli Jeddah are rated 183 Elo points higher
Elo 1,699 against 1,517. On rating alone Al-Ahli Jeddah would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.
-
Al-Ahli Jeddah score more
2.22 goals a game over 89 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah, against 1.48 over 64 for Al Taawon.
-
Al-Ahli Jeddah concede fewer
Al-Ahli Jeddah concede 1.00 a game, Al Taawon 1.27.
-
Al-Ahli Jeddah games more often go over 2.5 goals
64% of Al-Ahli Jeddah matches, against 47% for Al Taawon. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Taawon
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1699.2
ELO
1516.5
89
ELO · Matches
64
1699.2
Current Team ELO
1516.5
1516.5
Current Opponent ELO
1699.2
182.7
Current ELO Difference
-182.7
0.74
Expected score
0.26
89
History Matches
64
0.11
Residual Mean
0.01
58.85
Overperformance
50.76
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.20
1.90
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals 90
89
Matches
64
2.18
PPG
1.39
66.3%
Win rate
35.9%
19.1%
Draw rate
31.3%
14.6%
Loss rate
32.8%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
46.1%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals 100
44
Matches
33
2.20
PPG
1.36
65.9%
Win rate
36.4%
22.7%
Draw rate
27.3%
11.4%
Loss rate
36.4%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
44
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.22
Goals for per game
1.48
91.0%
Scoring rate
73.4%
53.9%
BTTS rate
56.3%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.52
93.2%
Scoring rate
72.7%
56.8%
BTTS rate
57.6%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
89
History Matches
64
2.22
Goals Mean
1.48
1.37
Goals Std
1.39
91.0%
Scored 1+ rate
73.4%
66.3%
Scored 2+ rate
40.6%
38.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.27
57.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.02
Goals against per game
1.24
59.1%
Conceding rate
78.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
89
History Matches
64
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.07
Conceded Std
1.00
29.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.6%
12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.8%
1.02
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
42.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
9.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.6%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
42.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
9.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.6%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
42.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
89
History Matches
64
0.79
Result entropy
1.00
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.68
20.83
Stability score
0.15
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
88
Eligible Matches
64
47
Lead Matches
19
85.1%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.88
14
Trailing Matches
18
64.3%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
35.7%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
1.07
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.96
Rest days
72.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.45
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
63
Normal Rest History Matches
44
2.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
14
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
0.67
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
2
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.67
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
11
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.32
2.60
Portability PPG Range
0.89
40.67
Portability Score
61.21
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
89
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO182.7
PPG0.79
GF0.74
GA-0.27
PPG2.33
PPG0.84
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate17.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate19.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches25
Goals Mean0.74
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate17.6%
Scored 2+ rate25.7%
Scored 3+ rate19.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.98
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches25
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate17.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches25
Result entropy-0.21
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score20.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches24
Lead Matches28
Lead Win Rate0.9%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate25.4%
Trailing Win Rate24.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches24
First Half Goals For Mean0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.83
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range1.71
Portability Score-20.55
Rest days2.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.29
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.65
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.97
Current Team ELO182.7
Current Opponent ELO-182.7
Current ELO Difference365.3
Expected score0.48
History Matches25
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance8.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
D
Al Sadd0–0Al-Ahli Jeddah2 Nov · away
Pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% · missed L
Al Shabab6–1Al-Ahli Jeddah30 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% · missed W
Al-Ahli Jeddah2–1Al-Gharafa26 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% · hit W
Al-Fayha2–3Al-Ahli Jeddah19 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% · hit W
Al-Wasl FC1–3Al-Ahli Jeddah12 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% · hit Al Taawon
D
Al Taawon1–1Al-Ettifaq31 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ettifaq 42% · missed W
Al Faisaly0–2Al Taawon28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Faisaly 39% · missed L
Al Riyadh2–1Al Taawon24 Oct · away
Pick: Al Taawon 49% · missed L
Al Taawon0–1Al-Qadisiyah FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% · hit D
Al Diriyah1–1Al Taawon17 Oct · away
Pick: Al Diriyah 44% · missed About this match
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon were due to play in Pro League on Thursday 5 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.