ScoreProb
Serie A Women Italy Round 6 2026

AC Milan W vs Inter Milano W

AC Milan W Home · Elo 1,509
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Inter Milano W Away · Elo 1,608
Centro Sportivo Peppino Vismara, Milan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Inter Milano W win
AC Milan W win
28.6%
Draw
22.7%
Inter Milano W winPick
48.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.1%
Under 2.536.9%

How much we know

AC Milan W history35 matches
Inter Milano W history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Inter Milano W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Inter Milano W are rated 99 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,608 against 1,509. On rating alone Inter Milano W would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Inter Milano W score more

    1.57 goals a game over 35 matches for AC Milan W, against 2.26 over 43 for Inter Milano W.

  • Inter Milano W concede fewer

    AC Milan W concede 1.60 a game, Inter Milano W 1.14.

  • Inter Milano W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of AC Milan W matches, against 70% for Inter Milano W. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AC Milan W
Inter Milano W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1509.3
ELO
1607.8
35
ELO · Matches
43
1509.3
Current Team ELO
1607.8
1607.8
Current Opponent ELO
1509.3
-98.50
Current ELO Difference
98.50
0.36
Expected score
0.64
35
History Matches
43
0.01
Residual Mean
0.12
50.69
Overperformance
58.07
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
0.70
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
43
1.40
PPG
1.93
37.1%
Win rate
58.1%
28.6%
Draw rate
18.6%
34.3%
Loss rate
23.3%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
69.8%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
44.2%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
23
1.53
PPG
1.96
41.2%
Win rate
60.9%
29.4%
Draw rate
13.0%
29.4%
Loss rate
26.1%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
52.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
17
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.57
Goals for per game
2.26
65.7%
Scoring rate
81.4%
54.3%
BTTS rate
46.5%
1.76
Goals for per game
2.09
76.5%
Scoring rate
82.6%
70.6%
BTTS rate
52.2%
35
History Matches
43
1.57
Goals Mean
2.26
1.40
Goals Std
1.75
65.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
51.4%
Scored 2+ rate
60.5%
31.4%
Scored 3+ rate
41.9%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
2.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.60
Goals against per game
1.14
77.1%
Conceding rate
60.5%
1.88
Goals against per game
1.22
82.4%
Conceding rate
69.6%
35
History Matches
43
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.46
Conceded Std
1.13
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.2%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
1.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
43
0.99
Result entropy
0.88
1.83
Goal Difference Std
2.18
0.53
Stability score
11.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
43
9
Lead Matches
19
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.84
9
Trailing Matches
10
55.6%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
40.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.28
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.81
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
11
Normal Rest History Matches
18
0.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.89
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.15
Portability PPG Range
0.30
86.61
Portability Score
79.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-98.50
PPG-0.53
GF-0.68
GA0.46
PPG-0.43
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate15.7%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.68
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.46
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score-11.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate15.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score7.24
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.16
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-98.50
Current Opponent ELO98.50
Current ELO Difference-197.0
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AC Milan W

L
Como W1–0AC Milan W1 Nov · away
Pick: Como W 41% · hit
W
AC Milan W3–0Ternana W24 Oct · home
Pick: AC Milan W 57% · hit
L
Roma W4–2AC Milan W18 Oct · away
Pick: Roma W 69% · hit
W
AC Milan W2–1Juventus W4 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus W 49% · missed
W
AC Milan W2–1Como W29 Aug · home
Pick: AC Milan W 50% · hit

Inter Milano W

W
Inter Milano W3–0Lazio W1 Nov · home
Pick: Inter Milano W 59% · hit
L
Lyon W6–0Inter Milano W28 Oct · away
Pick: Lyon W 60% · hit
D
Napoli W0–0Inter Milano W24 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Milano W 48% · missed
W
Inter Milano W3–0Parma W18 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Milano W 68% · hit
W
Como W0–2Inter Milano W4 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Milano W 45% · hit

About this match

AC Milan W and Inter Milano W meet in Serie A Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Centro Sportivo Peppino Vismara, Milan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: AC Milan W win 28.6%, draw 22.7%, Inter Milano W win 48.7%. The pick is Inter Milano W win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.1%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.