ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 6 Romania Group 6 - 12 2026

Academica Balș vs Minerul Lupeni

Academica Balș Home · Elo 1,530
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Minerul Lupeni Away · Elo 1,612
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Minerul Lupeni win
Academica Balș win
31.9%
Draw
26.0%
Minerul Lupeni winPick
42.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.1%
Under 2.549.9%

How much we know

Academica Balș history25 matches
Minerul Lupeni history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Minerul Lupeni are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Minerul Lupeni are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,612 against 1,530. On rating alone Minerul Lupeni would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Minerul Lupeni score more

    1.40 goals a game over 25 matches for Academica Balș, against 1.64 over 36 for Minerul Lupeni.

  • Minerul Lupeni concede fewer

    Academica Balș concede 1.20 a game, Minerul Lupeni 0.81.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Academica Balș matches, against 44% for Minerul Lupeni. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Academica Balș
Minerul Lupeni@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.5
ELO
1611.8
25
ELO · Matches
36
1530.5
Current Team ELO
1611.8
1611.8
Current Opponent ELO
1530.5
-81.34
Current ELO Difference
81.34
0.39
Expected score
0.61
25
History Matches
36
0.04
Residual Mean
0.16
52.30
Overperformance
60.16
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.30
0.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
0.30
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
36
1.68
PPG
2.03
52.0%
Win rate
61.1%
12.0%
Draw rate
19.4%
36.0%
Loss rate
19.4%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
17
1.90
PPG
1.65
60.0%
Win rate
47.1%
10.0%
Draw rate
23.5%
30.0%
Loss rate
29.4%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
52.9%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
10
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
1.64
68.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
40.0%
BTTS rate
30.6%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.24
80.0%
Scoring rate
76.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
35.3%
25
History Matches
36
1.40
Goals Mean
1.64
1.30
Goals Std
1.46
68.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
1.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
0.81
64.0%
Conceding rate
44.4%
1.20
Goals against per game
0.94
70.0%
Conceding rate
52.9%
25
History Matches
36
1.20
Conceded Mean
0.81
1.20
Conceded Std
1.13
32.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.4%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.9%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
0.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
36
0.88
Result entropy
0.85
1.70
Goal Difference Std
2.10
12.41
Stability score
14.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
13
Eligible Matches
18
2
Lead Matches
6
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
99.90
Rest days
78.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
11
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.32
12
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.80
Portability PPG Std
0.19
1.61
Portability PPG Range
0.49
38.36
Portability Score
72.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-81.34
PPG-0.35
GF-0.24
GA0.39
PPG0.25
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.80
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.39
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate12.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score-2.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.57
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.61
Portability PPG Range1.12
Portability Score-33.89
Rest days21.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO-81.34
Current Opponent ELO81.34
Current ELO Difference-162.7
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-7.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Academica Balș

D
Academica Balș0–0CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin30 Oct · home
Pick: Academica Balș 59% · missed
L
Păușești2–1Academica Balș24 Oct · away
Pick: Academica Balș 36% · missed
D
Academica Balș1–1Filiaşi16 Oct · home
Pick: Academica Balș 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Minerul Lupeni

W
Minerul Lupeni1–0CS U Craiova II31 Oct · home
Pick: Minerul Lupeni 55% · hit
D
Minerul Lupeni1–1FC Politehnica Timisoara28 Oct · home
Pick: FC Politehnica Timisoara 40% · missed
L
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin3–0Minerul Lupeni23 Oct · away
Pick: CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 36% · hit
D
Minerul Lupeni1–1Păușești17 Oct · home
Pick: Minerul Lupeni 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Academica Balș and Minerul Lupeni meet in Liga III - Serie 6 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Academica Balș win 31.9%, draw 26.0%, Minerul Lupeni win 42.2%. The pick is Minerul Lupeni win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.1%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.