ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 6 Romania Group 6 - 12 2026

Unirea Bascov vs Păușești

Unirea Bascov Home · Elo 1,461
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Păușești Away · Elo 1,471
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Unirea Bascov win
Unirea Bascov winPick
51.4%
Draw
23.2%
Păușești win
25.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%

How much we know

Unirea Bascov history31 matches
Păușești history25 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Unirea Bascov are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,461 against 1,471. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Unirea Bascov score more

    1.52 goals a game over 31 matches for Unirea Bascov, against 1.36 over 25 for Păușești.

  • Defences are close

    Unirea Bascov concede 1.52 a game, Păușești 1.44.

  • Unirea Bascov games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Unirea Bascov matches, against 56% for Păușești. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unirea Bascov
Păușești@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.1
ELO
1470.7
31
ELO · Matches
25
1461.1
Current Team ELO
1470.7
1470.7
Current Opponent ELO
1461.1
-9.67
Current ELO Difference
9.67
0.49
Expected score
0.51
31
History Matches
25
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.04
44.95
Overperformance
47.72
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
31
Matches
25
1.13
PPG
1.36
32.3%
Win rate
40.0%
16.1%
Draw rate
16.0%
51.6%
Loss rate
44.0%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
64.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
10
1.58
PPG
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
8.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
41.7%
Loss rate
60.0%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
12
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.52
Goals for per game
1.36
74.2%
Scoring rate
68.0%
51.6%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.30
75.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
31
History Matches
25
1.52
Goals Mean
1.36
1.41
Goals Std
1.23
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
38.7%
Scored 2+ rate
44.0%
22.6%
Scored 3+ rate
16.0%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.52
Goals against per game
1.44
74.2%
Conceding rate
64.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.40
58.3%
Conceding rate
90.0%
31
History Matches
25
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.27
Conceded Std
1.39
45.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.0%
25.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.0%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
2.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
31
History Matches
25
0.91
Result entropy
0.93
2.30
Goal Difference Std
2.00
8.92
Stability score
7.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
20
10
Lead Matches
7
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
9
Trailing Matches
7
0.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
99.90
Rest days
92.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
10
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
20
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.04
Portability PPG Std
—
0.08
Portability PPG Range
—
92.78
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
31
Clean History Matches
25
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-9.67
PPG-0.23
GF0.16
GA0.08
PPG0.78
PPG1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate31.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate6.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate1.2%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-1.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score1.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.87
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-9.67
Current Opponent ELO9.67
Current ELO Difference-19.34
Expected score-0.03
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Unirea Bascov

W
Unirea Bascov2–0Filiaşi30 Oct · home
Pick: Unirea Bascov 56% · hit
L
Oltul Curtişoara4–2Unirea Bascov24 Oct · away
Pick: Oltul Curtişoara 48% · hit
W
Unirea Bascov1–0Vulturii Fărcăşeşti16 Oct · home
Pick: Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Păușești

W
Petrolul Hartiesti0–3Păușești31 Oct · away
Pick: Păușești 39% · hit
W
Păușești2–1Academica Balș24 Oct · home
Pick: Academica Balș 36% · missed
D
Minerul Lupeni1–1Păușești17 Oct · away
Pick: Minerul Lupeni 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Unirea Bascov and Păușești meet in Liga III - Serie 6 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Unirea Bascov win 51.4%, draw 23.2%, Păușești win 25.4%. The pick is Unirea Bascov win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.2%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.