ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 6 Romania Group 6 - 12 2026

CSM Targu Jiu vs Oltul Curtişoara

CSM Targu Jiu Home · Elo 1,534
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oltul Curtişoara Away · Elo 1,537
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oltul Curtişoara win
CSM Targu Jiu win
32.3%
Draw
26.4%
Oltul Curtişoara winPick
41.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%

How much we know

CSM Targu Jiu history23 matches
Oltul Curtişoara history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Oltul Curtişoara are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,534 against 1,537. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Oltul Curtişoara score more

    1.26 goals a game over 23 matches for CSM Targu Jiu, against 1.70 over 37 for Oltul Curtişoara.

  • CSM Targu Jiu concede fewer

    CSM Targu Jiu concede 1.17 a game, Oltul Curtişoara 1.65.

  • Oltul Curtişoara games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of CSM Targu Jiu matches, against 65% for Oltul Curtişoara. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CSM Targu Jiu
Oltul Curtişoara@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1534.0
ELO
1537.5
23
ELO · Matches
37
1534.0
Current Team ELO
1537.5
1537.5
Current Opponent ELO
1534.0
-3.44
Current ELO Difference
3.44
0.50
Expected score
0.50
23
History Matches
37
0.06
Residual Mean
0.05
53.31
Overperformance
53.10
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.90
1.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
37
1.52
PPG
1.73
39.1%
Win rate
51.4%
34.8%
Draw rate
18.9%
26.1%
Loss rate
29.7%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
91.9%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
19
1.60
PPG
1.58
40.0%
Win rate
47.4%
40.0%
Draw rate
15.8%
20.0%
Loss rate
36.8%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.7%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
10
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.26
Goals for per game
1.70
73.9%
Scoring rate
78.4%
52.2%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.79
70.0%
Scoring rate
73.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
23
History Matches
37
1.26
Goals Mean
1.70
0.94
Goals Std
1.29
73.9%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
43.5%
Scored 2+ rate
54.1%
8.7%
Scored 3+ rate
27.0%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.17
Goals against per game
1.65
65.2%
Conceding rate
73.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.05
60.0%
Conceding rate
84.2%
23
History Matches
37
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.24
Conceded Std
1.49
26.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
37
0.99
Result entropy
0.93
1.47
Goal Difference Std
2.12
1.24
Stability score
7.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
17
Eligible Matches
25
3
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.73
6
Trailing Matches
10
33.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.92
Rest days
86.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
7
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
15
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.67
53.77
Portability Score
66.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-3.44
PPG-0.21
GF-0.44
GA-0.47
PPG0.02
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate24.2%
Failed-to-score rate3.7%
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches-14
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.65
Stability score-6.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate40.0%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-12.52
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Current Team ELO-3.44
Current Opponent ELO3.44
Current ELO Difference-6.89
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CSM Targu Jiu

W
CSM Targu Jiu2–1Vulturii Fărcăşeşti30 Oct · home
Pick: CSM Targu Jiu 40% · hit
D
CS U Craiova II0–0CSM Targu Jiu23 Oct · away
Pick: CS U Craiova II 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Oltul Curtişoara

W
Jiul Petroşani0–3Oltul Curtişoara30 Oct · away
Pick: Jiul Petroşani 44% · missed
W
Oltul Curtişoara4–2Unirea Bascov24 Oct · home
Pick: Oltul Curtişoara 48% · hit
W
Petrolul Hartiesti1–2Oltul Curtişoara17 Oct · away
Pick: Oltul Curtişoara 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

CSM Targu Jiu and Oltul Curtişoara meet in Liga III - Serie 6 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: CSM Targu Jiu win 32.3%, draw 26.4%, Oltul Curtişoara win 41.3%. The pick is Oltul Curtişoara win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.6%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.