ScoreProb
Segunda Liga Portugal Round 10 2026

Academica vs Amarante

Academica Home · Elo 1,609
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Amarante Away · Elo 1,559
Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Academica win
Academica winPick
54.7%
Draw
22.5%
Amarante win
22.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

How much we know

Academica history54 matches
Amarante history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Academica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Academica are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,609 against 1,559. On rating alone Academica would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Academica score more

    1.56 goals a game over 54 matches for Academica, against 1.13 over 56 for Amarante.

  • Defences are close

    Academica concede 1.07 a game, Amarante 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Academica matches, against 41% for Amarante. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Academica
Amarante
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1608.6
ELO
1559.2
54
ELO · Matches
56
1608.6
Current Team ELO
1559.2
1559.2
Current Opponent ELO
1608.6
49.40
Current ELO Difference
-49.40
0.57
Expected score
0.43
54
History Matches
56
0.09
Residual Mean
0.05
56.31
Overperformance
53.69
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
56
1.72
PPG
1.52
46.3%
Win rate
41.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
20.4%
Loss rate
30.4%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.1%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
29
2.17
PPG
1.38
65.2%
Win rate
37.9%
21.7%
Draw rate
24.1%
13.0%
Loss rate
37.9%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
13.8%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
23
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.13
79.6%
Scoring rate
73.2%
53.7%
BTTS rate
51.8%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.07
82.6%
Scoring rate
65.5%
47.8%
BTTS rate
51.7%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
54
History Matches
56
1.56
Goals Mean
1.13
1.21
Goals Std
0.95
79.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.05
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.1%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.10
56.5%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
56
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.10
Conceded Std
0.97
24.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.25
4.71
Stability score
1.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
55
16
Lead Matches
15
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.89
11
Trailing Matches
14
45.5%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.84
Rest days
77.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
25
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
0.33
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.77
1.86
Portability PPG Range
2.00
42.61
Portability Score
39.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO49.40
PPG0.20
GF0.43
GA0.02
PPG2.67
PPG0.79
PPG2.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate6.4%
Scored 2+ rate15.9%
Scored 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.66
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score3.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.77
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate0.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate9.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.21
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score3.11
Rest days0.74
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.62
Current Team ELO49.40
Current Opponent ELO-49.40
Current ELO Difference98.80
Expected score0.14
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Academica

L
Vizela2–1Academica1 Nov · away
Pick: Academica 41% · missed
W
Academica4–0Leixoes24 Oct · home
Pick: Academica 56% · hit
L
Academica0–2Lusitânia Lourosa29 Aug · home
Pick: Academica 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Amarante

W
Amarante2–1FC Porto B31 Oct · home
Pick: Amarante 52% · hit
L
Torreense1–0Amarante26 Oct · away
Pick: Torreense 54% · hit
W
Amarante1–0Benfica B30 Aug · home
Pick: Benfica B 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Academica and Amarante meet in Segunda Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Academica win 54.7%, draw 22.5%, Amarante win 22.9%. The pick is Academica win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.9%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.