ScoreProb
Segunda Liga Portugal Round 10 2026

Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes

Felgueiras 1932 Home · Elo 1,526
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leixoes Away · Elo 1,541
Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos, Felgueiras Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Felgueiras 1932 win
Felgueiras 1932 winPick
49.8%
Draw
24.8%
Leixoes win
25.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

Felgueiras 1932 history62 matches
Leixoes history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Felgueiras 1932 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,526 against 1,541. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Leixoes score more

    1.10 goals a game over 62 matches for Felgueiras 1932, against 1.41 over 58 for Leixoes.

  • Felgueiras 1932 concede fewer

    Felgueiras 1932 concede 1.02 a game, Leixoes 1.52.

  • Leixoes games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Felgueiras 1932 matches, against 53% for Leixoes. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1526.0
ELO
1541.1
62
ELO · Matches
58
1526.0
Current Team ELO
1541.1
1541.1
Current Opponent ELO
1526.0
-15.15
Current ELO Difference
15.15
0.48
Expected score
0.52
62
History Matches
58
0.00
Residual Mean
0.03
50.22
Overperformance
52.23
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
2.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
0.90
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
58
1.39
PPG
1.41
33.9%
Win rate
39.7%
37.1%
Draw rate
22.4%
29.0%
Loss rate
37.9%
61.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
32.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.4%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
31
1.72
PPG
1.39
48.0%
Win rate
35.5%
28.0%
Draw rate
32.3%
24.0%
Loss rate
32.3%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
25
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.10
Goals for per game
1.41
64.5%
Scoring rate
75.9%
41.9%
BTTS rate
58.6%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.29
72.0%
Scoring rate
74.2%
40.0%
BTTS rate
58.1%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
62
History Matches
58
1.10
Goals Mean
1.41
1.15
Goals Std
1.25
64.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
27.4%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.52
62.9%
Conceding rate
75.9%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.32
60.0%
Conceding rate
74.2%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
62
History Matches
58
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.02
Conceded Std
1.32
25.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.7%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
58
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.80
0.45
Stability score
2.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
55
13
Lead Matches
18
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.74
14
Trailing Matches
17
42.9%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.75
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.34
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
32
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.50
58.88
Portability Score
47.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-15.15
PPG-0.03
GF-0.32
GA-0.50
PPG0.00
PPG0.33
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate11.3%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate14.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.32
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches4
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-2.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate2.6%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate19.3%
Trailing Win Rate3.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score11.37
Rest days-2.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO-15.15
Current Opponent ELO15.15
Current ELO Difference-30.30
Expected score-0.04
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Felgueiras 1932

L
Tondela3–2Felgueiras 19321 Nov · away
Pick: Tondela 37% · hit
D
Felgueiras 19322–2Lusitânia Lourosa25 Oct · home
Pick: Lusitânia Lourosa 36% · missed
W
Felgueiras 19321–0Fafe18 Oct · home
Pick: Felgueiras 1932 40% · hit
L
Benfica B1–0Felgueiras 193212 Oct · away
Pick: Benfica B 50% · hit
W
Felgueiras 19322–1Chaves30 Aug · home
Pick: Felgueiras 1932 53% · hit

Leixoes

L
Leixoes1–2Sporting CP B31 Oct · home
Pick: Leixoes 38% · missed
L
Academica4–0Leixoes24 Oct · away
Pick: Academica 56% · hit
L
Vianense1–0Leixoes17 Oct · away
Pick: Vianense 39% · hit
W
Portimonense0–2Leixoes29 Aug · away
Pick: Portimonense 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Felgueiras 1932 and Leixoes meet in Segunda Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos, Felgueiras. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Felgueiras 1932 win 49.8%, draw 24.8%, Leixoes win 25.4%. The pick is Felgueiras 1932 win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.