ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C Portugal Group C - 8 2026

AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua

AD Nogueirense Home · Elo 1,507
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mortágua Away · Elo 1,533
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mortágua win
AD Nogueirense win
26.8%
Draw
30.7%
Mortágua winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%

How much we know

AD Nogueirense history3 matches
Mortágua history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Mortágua are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mortágua are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,533 against 1,507. On rating alone Mortágua would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • AD Nogueirense score far more

    1.67 goals a game over 3 matches for AD Nogueirense, against 1.05 over 42 for Mortágua.

  • Mortágua concede fewer

    AD Nogueirense concede 1.33 a game, Mortágua 0.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of AD Nogueirense matches, against 31% for Mortágua. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AD Nogueirense
Mortágua@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.0
ELO
1533.4
3
ELO · Matches
42
1507.0
Current Team ELO
1533.4
1533.4
Current Opponent ELO
1507.0
-26.44
Current ELO Difference
26.44
0.46
Expected score
0.54
3
History Matches
42
0.15
Residual Mean
0.04
51.91
Overperformance
52.90
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
1.67
PPG
1.80
1.67
Goals for per game
1.60
1.33
Goals against per game
1.20
33.3%
Win rate
60.0%
3
Matches
10
1.67
PPG
1.30
1.67
Goals for per game
1.00
1.33
Goals against per game
1.10
33.3%
Win rate
40.0%
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
42
1.67
PPG
1.60
33.3%
Win rate
42.9%
66.7%
Draw rate
31.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
26.2%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
59.5%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
31.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
20
2.00
PPG
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
55.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
2
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.05
100.0%
Scoring rate
64.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
35.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
65.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
30.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
42
1.67
Goals Mean
1.05
0.94
Goals Std
0.95
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
0.95
66.7%
Conceding rate
57.1%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
55.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
42
1.33
Conceded Mean
0.95
1.25
Conceded Std
1.09
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.8%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.5%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
42
0.58
Result entropy
0.98
0.47
Goal Difference Std
1.52
42.06
Stability score
1.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
42
2
Lead Matches
11
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.88
0
Trailing Matches
6
—
Non-loss rate
16.7%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
1.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
1
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
2
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.12
—
Portability PPG Range
0.30
—
Portability Score
80.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-26.44
PPG0.07
GF0.62
GA0.38
PPG-2.00
PPG0.30
PPG-0.13
PPG0.37
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-39
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches-39
Goals Mean0.62
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate35.7%
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate26.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches-39
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate23.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.71
History Matches-39
Result entropy-0.40
Goal Difference Std-1.05
Stability score40.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.97
Eligible Matches-39
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.32
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches-6
Halftime Coverage Matches-39
First Half Goals For Mean1.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-27
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Current Team ELO-26.44
Current Opponent ELO26.44
Current ELO Difference-52.89
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-39
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance-1.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AD Nogueirense

D
Oliveira Hospital3–3AD Nogueirense1 Nov · away
Pick: Oliveira Hospital 58% · missed
L
FC Alverca II3–0AD Nogueirense25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Alverca II 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mortágua

D
Mortágua0–0FC Alverca II1 Nov · home
Pick: Mortágua 50% · missed
W
Naval 18930–2Mortágua25 Oct · away
Pick: Mortágua 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AD Nogueirense and Mortágua meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: AD Nogueirense win 26.8%, draw 30.7%, Mortágua win 42.5%. The pick is Mortágua win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.4%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.