ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C Portugal Group C - 8 2026

Naval 1893 vs Atlético Malveira

Naval 1893 Home · Elo 1,541
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Malveira Away · Elo 1,517
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Naval 1893 win
Naval 1893 winPick
52.2%
Draw
22.3%
Atlético Malveira win
25.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.6%
Under 2.551.4%

How much we know

Naval 1893 history28 matches
Atlético Malveira history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Naval 1893 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,541 against 1,517. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.36 goals a game over 28 matches for Naval 1893, against 1.33 over 36 for Atlético Malveira.

  • Naval 1893 concede fewer

    Naval 1893 concede 0.96 a game, Atlético Malveira 1.11.

  • Atlético Malveira games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Naval 1893 matches, against 44% for Atlético Malveira. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Naval 1893
Atlético Malveira@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.3
ELO
1516.5
28
ELO · Matches
36
1541.3
Current Team ELO
1516.5
1516.5
Current Opponent ELO
1541.3
24.76
Current ELO Difference
-24.76
0.54
Expected score
0.46
28
History Matches
36
0.07
Residual Mean
0.02
53.85
Overperformance
51.09
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.60
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
0.90
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
28
Matches
36
1.71
PPG
1.47
50.0%
Win rate
38.9%
21.4%
Draw rate
30.6%
28.6%
Loss rate
30.6%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
19
2.23
PPG
1.53
69.2%
Win rate
36.8%
15.4%
Draw rate
42.1%
15.4%
Loss rate
21.1%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
13
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
69.4%
39.3%
BTTS rate
47.2%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.47
92.3%
Scoring rate
73.7%
46.2%
BTTS rate
52.6%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
28
History Matches
36
1.36
Goals Mean
1.33
1.23
Goals Std
1.35
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
36.1%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
13.9%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
1.11
57.1%
Conceding rate
69.4%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.05
46.2%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.50
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
28
History Matches
36
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.12
Conceded Std
1.05
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
28
History Matches
36
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.86
5.83
Stability score
0.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
36
8
Lead Matches
12
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.94
6
Trailing Matches
10
16.7%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
14
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.65
—
Portability PPG Range
1.31
—
Portability Score
43.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
28
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO24.76
PPG0.24
GF0.02
GA-0.15
PPG1.50
PPG0.70
PPG1.00
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate22.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.50
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score5.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO24.76
Current Opponent ELO-24.76
Current ELO Difference49.52
Expected score0.07
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance2.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Naval 1893

L
O Elvas3–1Naval 18931 Nov · away
Pick: O Elvas 46% · hit
L
Naval 18930–2Mortágua25 Oct · home
Pick: Mortágua 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlético Malveira

D
Atlético Malveira2–2Benfica Castelo Branco1 Nov · home
Pick: Benfica Castelo Branco 44% · missed
D
UD da Serra1–1Atlético Malveira25 Oct · away
Pick: UD da Serra 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Naval 1893 and Atlético Malveira meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Naval 1893 win 52.2%, draw 22.3%, Atlético Malveira win 25.5%. The pick is Naval 1893 win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.6%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.