ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C Portugal Group C - 8 2026

Sertanense vs Oliveira Hospital

Sertanense Home · Elo 1,475
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oliveira Hospital Away · Elo 1,566
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oliveira Hospital win
Sertanense win
28.8%
Draw
29.7%
Oliveira Hospital winPick
41.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.8%
Under 2.559.2%

How much we know

Sertanense history13 matches
Oliveira Hospital history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Oliveira Hospital are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oliveira Hospital are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,566 against 1,475. On rating alone Oliveira Hospital would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Oliveira Hospital score far more

    0.85 goals a game over 13 matches for Sertanense, against 1.43 over 44 for Oliveira Hospital.

  • Oliveira Hospital concede fewer

    Sertanense concede 1.15 a game, Oliveira Hospital 0.86.

  • Oliveira Hospital games more often go over 2.5 goals

    23% of Sertanense matches, against 39% for Oliveira Hospital. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sertanense
Oliveira Hospital@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.9
ELO
1566.0
13
ELO · Matches
44
1474.9
Current Team ELO
1566.0
1566.0
Current Opponent ELO
1474.9
-91.02
Current ELO Difference
91.02
0.37
Expected score
0.63
13
History Matches
44
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.07
45.94
Overperformance
55.11
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.50
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
44
1.00
PPG
1.59
23.1%
Win rate
40.9%
30.8%
Draw rate
36.4%
46.2%
Loss rate
22.7%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
23.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.6%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.9%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
22
1.17
PPG
1.50
33.3%
Win rate
36.4%
16.7%
Draw rate
40.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
22.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
6
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.85
Goals for per game
1.43
61.5%
Scoring rate
79.5%
46.2%
BTTS rate
47.7%
0.83
Goals for per game
1.23
50.0%
Scoring rate
77.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
13
History Matches
44
0.85
Goals Mean
1.43
0.86
Goals Std
1.12
61.5%
Scored 1+ rate
79.5%
15.4%
Scored 2+ rate
43.2%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
13.6%
0.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
0.86
76.9%
Conceding rate
59.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.95
66.7%
Conceding rate
63.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
13
History Matches
44
1.15
Conceded Mean
0.86
0.86
Conceded Std
0.84
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.3%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
0.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
44
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.32
Goal Difference Std
1.56
3.71
Stability score
2.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
13
Eligible Matches
44
0
Lead Matches
16
—
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.81
3
Trailing Matches
7
33.3%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
3
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.47
—
Portability PPG Range
1.00
—
Portability Score
51.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-91.02
PPG-0.59
GF-0.59
GA0.29
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate18.0%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate27.3%
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-0.59
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate5.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score1.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches-31
Lead Matches-16
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate4.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-31
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-91.02
Current Opponent ELO91.02
Current ELO Difference-182.0
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-9.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sertanense

D
Nazarenos0–0Sertanense1 Nov · away
Pick: Sertanense 35% · missed
D
Sertanense2–2Fátima25 Oct · home
Pick: Fátima 44% · missed
L
Alcains1–0Sertanense30 Aug · away
Pick: Sertanense 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Oliveira Hospital

D
Oliveira Hospital3–3AD Nogueirense1 Nov · home
Pick: Oliveira Hospital 58% · missed
D
Nazarenos1–1Oliveira Hospital25 Oct · away
Pick: Oliveira Hospital 46% · missed
W
Oliveira Hospital1–0Sourense30 Aug · home
Pick: Oliveira Hospital 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sertanense and Oliveira Hospital meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sertanense win 28.8%, draw 29.7%, Oliveira Hospital win 41.5%. The pick is Oliveira Hospital win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.8%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.