ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C Portugal Group C - 8 2026

UD da Serra vs Fátima

UD da Serra Home · Elo 1,554
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fátima Away · Elo 1,503
Campo da Portela Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fátima win
UD da Serra win
28.8%
Draw
28.9%
Fátima winPick
42.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%
No53.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.0%
Under 2.559.0%

How much we know

UD da Serra history29 matches
Fátima history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Fátima are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • UD da Serra are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,503. On rating alone UD da Serra would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • UD da Serra score more

    1.45 goals a game over 29 matches for UD da Serra, against 1.15 over 46 for Fátima.

  • Defences are close

    UD da Serra concede 1.07 a game, Fátima 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    34% of UD da Serra matches, against 39% for Fátima. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
UD da Serra
Fátima@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1554.0
ELO
1502.6
29
ELO · Matches
46
1554.0
Current Team ELO
1502.6
1502.6
Current Opponent ELO
1554.0
51.35
Current ELO Difference
-51.35
0.57
Expected score
0.43
29
History Matches
46
0.09
Residual Mean
0.00
55.26
Overperformance
49.89
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
3.00
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.50
1.50
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
29
Matches
46
1.72
PPG
1.39
48.3%
Win rate
39.1%
27.6%
Draw rate
21.7%
24.1%
Loss rate
39.1%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.4%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
24
2.14
PPG
1.17
57.1%
Win rate
33.3%
42.9%
Draw rate
16.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
14
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.15
72.4%
Scoring rate
65.2%
44.8%
BTTS rate
34.8%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.75
78.6%
Scoring rate
54.2%
42.9%
BTTS rate
25.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
29
History Matches
46
1.45
Goals Mean
1.15
1.30
Goals Std
1.23
72.4%
Scored 1+ rate
65.2%
44.8%
Scored 2+ rate
26.1%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.2%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.07
62.1%
Conceding rate
63.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.17
42.9%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
29
History Matches
46
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.11
Conceded Std
0.99
27.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.8%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
29
History Matches
46
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.84
4.43
Stability score
2.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
46
11
Lead Matches
17
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.86
5
Trailing Matches
17
0.0%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
18
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
10
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.50
3
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.73
—
Portability PPG Range
1.77
—
Portability Score
40.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
29
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO51.35
PPG0.33
GF0.30
GA0.00
PPG1.00
PPG0.98
PPG-0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate18.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.87
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score1.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.83
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate8.6%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.61
Current Team ELO51.35
Current Opponent ELO-51.35
Current ELO Difference102.7
Expected score0.15
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance5.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

UD da Serra

L
Os Marialvas2–1UD da Serra1 Nov · away
Pick: Os Marialvas 41% · hit
D
UD da Serra1–1Atlético Malveira25 Oct · home
Pick: UD da Serra 52% · missed
W
UD da Serra5–0Uniao de Pombal30 Aug · home
Pick: UD da Serra 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fátima

W
Fátima6–1Fazendense1 Nov · home
Pick: Fátima 70% · hit
D
Sertanense2–2Fátima25 Oct · away
Pick: Fátima 44% · missed
W
Fátima1–0Academico Viseu18 Oct · home
Pick: Academico Viseu 42% · missed
W
Fátima3–1Benfica Castelo Branco29 Aug · home
Pick: Fátima 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

UD da Serra and Fátima meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Campo da Portela. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: UD da Serra win 28.8%, draw 28.9%, Fátima win 42.2%. The pick is Fátima win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.0%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.