Adelaide United W vs Wellington Phoenix W
Match result probability Model pick: Wellington Phoenix W win
Adelaide United W win
34.1%
Draw
26.5%
Wellington Phoenix W winPick
39.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.8%
No46.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%
How much we know
Adelaide United W history33 matches
Wellington Phoenix W history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Wellington Phoenix W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
- Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 07:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 08:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Wellington Phoenix W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,515 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.42 goals a game over 33 matches for Adelaide United W, against 1.44 over 34 for Wellington Phoenix W.
-
Wellington Phoenix W concede fewer
Adelaide United W concede 1.39 a game, Wellington Phoenix W 1.12.
-
Adelaide United W games more often go over 2.5 goals
64% of Adelaide United W matches, against 47% for Wellington Phoenix W. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wellington Phoenix W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1515.2
ELO
1496.0
33
ELO · Matches
34
1515.2
Current Team ELO
1496.0
1496.0
Current Opponent ELO
1515.2
19.20
Current ELO Difference
-19.20
0.53
Expected score
0.47
33
History Matches
34
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.55
Overperformance
49.70
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals 90
33
Matches
34
1.58
PPG
1.24
48.5%
Win rate
35.3%
12.1%
Draw rate
17.6%
39.4%
Loss rate
47.1%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals 100
17
Matches
17
2.06
PPG
1.00
64.7%
Win rate
29.4%
11.8%
Draw rate
11.8%
23.5%
Loss rate
58.8%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
17
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.42
Goals for per game
1.44
75.8%
Scoring rate
76.5%
57.6%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.35
88.2%
Scoring rate
70.6%
64.7%
BTTS rate
52.9%
33
History Matches
34
1.42
Goals Mean
1.44
1.18
Goals Std
1.48
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
42.4%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.39
Goals against per game
1.12
72.7%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.24
70.6%
Conceding rate
82.4%
33
History Matches
34
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.20
Conceded Std
0.83
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.4%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.9%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
33
History Matches
34
0.89
Result entropy
0.94
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.94
11.37
Stability score
6.39
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
33
Eligible Matches
34
6
Lead Matches
10
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.93
9
Trailing Matches
9
22.2%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
195.0
Rest days
174.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
17
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
15
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.40
Portability PPG Range
1.15
71.19
Portability Score
46.42
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
33
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO19.20
PPG0.34
GF-0.02
GA0.28
PPG1.06
PPG-1.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate10.1%
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Conceded 2+ rate7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate21.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score4.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score24.76
Rest days20.97
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.62
Current Team ELO19.20
Current Opponent ELO-19.20
Current ELO Difference38.41
Expected score0.06
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Adelaide United W
L
Central Coast Mariners W2–0Adelaide United W31 Oct · away
Pick: Central Coast Mariners W 45% · hit D
Adelaide United W0–0Perth Glory FC W24 Oct · home
Pick: Adelaide United W 52% · missed D
Sydney FC W2–2Adelaide United W18 Oct · away
Pick: Adelaide United W 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Wellington Phoenix W
L
Perth Glory FC W2–0Wellington Phoenix W1 Nov · away
Pick: Wellington Phoenix W 41% · missed D
Wellington Phoenix W1–1Melbourne Victory W24 Oct · home
Pick: Melbourne Victory W 39% · missed L
Wellington Phoenix W1–2Melbourne City W17 Oct · home
Pick: Melbourne City W 46% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Adelaide United W and Wellington Phoenix W meet in A-League Women on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Adelaide United W win 34.1%, draw 26.5%, Wellington Phoenix W win 39.4%. The pick is Wellington Phoenix W win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.8%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.