Brisbane Roar FC W vs Melbourne Victory W
Match result probability Model pick: Melbourne Victory W win
Brisbane Roar FC W win
29.8%
Draw
24.4%
Melbourne Victory W winPick
45.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.4%
No43.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%
How much we know
Brisbane Roar FC W history34 matches
Melbourne Victory W history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Melbourne Victory W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 05:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 06:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Melbourne Victory W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Melbourne Victory W are rated 51 Elo points higher
Elo 1,550 against 1,499. On rating alone Melbourne Victory W would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.68 goals a game over 34 matches for Brisbane Roar FC W, against 1.54 over 35 for Melbourne Victory W.
-
Melbourne Victory W concede fewer
Brisbane Roar FC W concede 2.00 a game, Melbourne Victory W 0.97.
-
Brisbane Roar FC W games more often go over 2.5 goals
74% of Brisbane Roar FC W matches, against 46% for Melbourne Victory W. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Melbourne Victory W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1498.8
ELO
1549.5
34
ELO · Matches
35
1498.8
Current Team ELO
1549.5
1549.5
Current Opponent ELO
1498.8
-50.74
Current ELO Difference
50.74
0.43
Expected score
0.57
34
History Matches
35
0.00
Residual Mean
0.07
49.97
Overperformance
54.52
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
0.90
2.20
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals 90
34
Matches
35
1.29
PPG
1.83
38.2%
Win rate
54.3%
14.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
47.1%
Loss rate
25.7%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
73.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
52.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals 100
17
Matches
17
1.65
PPG
1.59
47.1%
Win rate
47.1%
23.5%
Draw rate
17.6%
29.4%
Loss rate
35.3%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
58.8%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
17
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.68
Goals for per game
1.54
76.5%
Scoring rate
82.9%
64.7%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.65
76.5%
Scoring rate
88.2%
58.8%
BTTS rate
70.6%
34
History Matches
35
1.68
Goals Mean
1.54
1.32
Goals Std
1.13
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
52.9%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
26.5%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
0.97
88.2%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.82
Goals against per game
1.24
82.4%
Conceding rate
82.4%
34
History Matches
35
2.00
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.24
Conceded Std
0.94
64.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
32.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
1.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
34
History Matches
35
0.91
Result entropy
0.91
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.27
8.59
Stability score
8.73
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
34
Eligible Matches
35
7
Lead Matches
13
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.79
10
Trailing Matches
5
20.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
181.1
Rest days
182.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
17
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
15
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.97
Portability PPG Range
1.13
50.70
Portability Score
46.96
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
34
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-50.74
PPG-0.53
GF0.13
GA1.03
PPG0.06
PPG1.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate11.8%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate10.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.78
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean1.03
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate44.7%
Conceded 3+ rate20.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.76
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.60
Stability score-0.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.56
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.60
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score3.74
Rest days-0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO-50.74
Current Opponent ELO50.74
Current ELO Difference-101.5
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Brisbane Roar FC W
L
Brisbane Roar FC W0–1Sydney FC W31 Oct · home
Pick: Brisbane Roar FC W 51% · missed L
Western Sydney Wanderers W3–1Brisbane Roar FC W24 Oct · away
Pick: Brisbane Roar FC W 46% · missed L
Brisbane Roar FC W2–4Central Coast Mariners W17 Oct · home
Pick: Brisbane Roar FC W 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Melbourne Victory W
W
Melbourne Victory W1–0Newcastle Jets FC W1 Nov · home
Pick: Melbourne Victory W 58% · hit D
Wellington Phoenix W1–1Melbourne Victory W24 Oct · away
Pick: Melbourne Victory W 39% · missed W
Western Sydney Wanderers W0–1Melbourne Victory W17 Oct · away
Pick: Melbourne Victory W 44% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Brisbane Roar FC W and Melbourne Victory W meet in A-League Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Brisbane Roar FC W win 29.8%, draw 24.4%, Melbourne Victory W win 45.8%. The pick is Melbourne Victory W win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.