Perth Glory FC W vs Canberra United W
Match result probability Model pick: Canberra United W win
Perth Glory FC W win
32.9%
Draw
30.8%
Canberra United W winPick
36.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.7%
No48.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%
How much we know
Perth Glory FC W history30 matches
Canberra United W history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Canberra United W
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 07:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 08:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Canberra United W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Canberra United W are rated 38 Elo points higher
Elo 1,503 against 1,465. On rating alone Canberra United W would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Canberra United W score more
1.07 goals a game over 30 matches for Perth Glory FC W, against 1.30 over 30 for Canberra United W.
-
Canberra United W concede fewer
Perth Glory FC W concede 1.57 a game, Canberra United W 1.20.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of Perth Glory FC W matches, against 50% for Canberra United W. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Canberra United W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1464.8
ELO
1503.0
30
ELO · Matches
30
1464.8
Current Team ELO
1503.0
1503.0
Current Opponent ELO
1464.8
-38.19
Current ELO Difference
38.19
0.45
Expected score
0.55
30
History Matches
30
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
46.92
Overperformance
50.29
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals 90
30
Matches
30
1.20
PPG
1.43
36.7%
Win rate
40.0%
10.0%
Draw rate
23.3%
53.3%
Loss rate
36.7%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals 100
16
Matches
15
1.81
PPG
1.27
56.3%
Win rate
33.3%
12.5%
Draw rate
26.7%
31.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
16
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.07
Goals for per game
1.30
63.3%
Scoring rate
83.3%
43.3%
BTTS rate
63.3%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.20
75.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
73.3%
30
History Matches
30
1.07
Goals Mean
1.30
1.06
Goals Std
0.94
63.3%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
26.7%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.57
Goals against per game
1.20
73.3%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.33
50.0%
Conceding rate
86.7%
30
History Matches
30
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.38
Conceded Std
0.91
46.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
23.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
30
History Matches
30
0.85
Result entropy
0.98
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.45
15.04
Stability score
2.24
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
30
Eligible Matches
30
6
Lead Matches
8
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.71
11
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
30
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
218.0
Rest days
196.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
14
Normal Rest History Matches
14
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.00
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.00
Portability PPG Range
0.10
100.0
Portability Score
90.91
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
30
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-38.19
PPG-0.23
GF-0.23
GA0.37
PPG0.55
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate36.7%
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.47
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Conceded 2+ rate13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score12.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.43
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate20.8%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score9.09
Rest days21.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-38.19
Current Opponent ELO38.19
Current ELO Difference-76.39
Expected score-0.11
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Perth Glory FC W
W
Perth Glory FC W2–0Wellington Phoenix W1 Nov · home
Pick: Wellington Phoenix W 41% · missed D
Adelaide United W0–0Perth Glory FC W24 Oct · away
Pick: Adelaide United W 52% · missed W
Newcastle Jets FC W0–1Perth Glory FC W17 Oct · away
Pick: Newcastle Jets FC W 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Canberra United W
L
Canberra United W0–2Western Sydney Wanderers W1 Nov · home
Pick: Canberra United W 49% · missed L
Central Coast Mariners W5–1Canberra United W24 Oct · away
Pick: Central Coast Mariners W 45% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Perth Glory FC W and Canberra United W meet in A-League Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Perth Glory FC W win 32.9%, draw 30.8%, Canberra United W win 36.3%. The pick is Canberra United W win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.4%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.