Central Coast Mariners W vs Newcastle Jets FC W
Match result probability Model pick: Central Coast Mariners W win
Central Coast Mariners W winPick
56.4%
Draw
21.9%
Newcastle Jets FC W win
21.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.7%
No44.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%
How much we know
Central Coast Mariners W history34 matches
Newcastle Jets FC W history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Central Coast Mariners W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 03:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 04:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.4%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.
Why Central Coast Mariners W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Central Coast Mariners W are rated 74 Elo points higher
Elo 1,524 against 1,450. On rating alone Central Coast Mariners W would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.35 goals a game over 34 matches for Central Coast Mariners W, against 1.43 over 30 for Newcastle Jets FC W.
-
Central Coast Mariners W concede fewer
Central Coast Mariners W concede 1.18 a game, Newcastle Jets FC W 2.07.
-
Newcastle Jets FC W games more often go over 2.5 goals
53% of Central Coast Mariners W matches, against 73% for Newcastle Jets FC W. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 6 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Newcastle Jets FC W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1524.4
ELO
1450.2
34
ELO · Matches
30
1524.4
Current Team ELO
1450.2
1450.2
Current Opponent ELO
1524.4
74.17
Current ELO Difference
-74.17
0.61
Expected score
0.39
34
History Matches
30
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.08
52.22
Overperformance
45.14
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals 90
34
Matches
30
1.47
PPG
1.07
38.2%
Win rate
33.3%
32.4%
Draw rate
6.7%
29.4%
Loss rate
60.0%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
43.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals 100
17
Matches
15
1.71
PPG
1.13
47.1%
Win rate
33.3%
29.4%
Draw rate
13.3%
23.5%
Loss rate
53.3%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
17
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.35
Goals for per game
1.43
67.6%
Scoring rate
86.7%
58.8%
BTTS rate
76.7%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.67
82.4%
Scoring rate
93.3%
70.6%
BTTS rate
93.3%
34
History Matches
30
1.35
Goals Mean
1.43
1.26
Goals Std
0.96
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
44.1%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
2.07
79.4%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.24
Goals against per game
2.40
76.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
30
1.18
Conceded Mean
2.07
0.92
Conceded Std
1.44
26.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.7%
8.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.0%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
2.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
34
History Matches
30
0.99
Result entropy
0.78
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.82
0.55
Stability score
22.34
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
34
Eligible Matches
30
7
Lead Matches
7
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.71
6
Trailing Matches
9
66.7%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
217.0
Rest days
215.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
15
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.25
85.37
Portability Score
80.00
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
34
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO74.17
PPG0.40
GF-0.08
GA-0.89
PPG0.57
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Failed-to-score rate19.0%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate23.5%
Failed-to-score rate11.0%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate7.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.89
Conceded Std-0.51
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Conceded Mean-1.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches4
Result entropy0.22
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-21.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.96
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate44.4%
Trailing Win Rate22.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score5.37
Rest days1.11
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO74.17
Current Opponent ELO-74.17
Current ELO Difference148.3
Expected score0.21
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance7.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Central Coast Mariners W
W
Central Coast Mariners W2–0Adelaide United W31 Oct · home
Pick: Central Coast Mariners W 45% · hit W
Central Coast Mariners W5–1Canberra United W24 Oct · home
Pick: Central Coast Mariners W 45% · hit W
Brisbane Roar FC W2–4Central Coast Mariners W17 Oct · away
Pick: Brisbane Roar FC W 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Newcastle Jets FC W
L
Melbourne Victory W1–0Newcastle Jets FC W1 Nov · away
Pick: Melbourne Victory W 58% · hit L
Newcastle Jets FC W0–1Perth Glory FC W17 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle Jets FC W 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Central Coast Mariners W and Newcastle Jets FC W meet in A-League Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Central Coast Mariners W win 56.4%, draw 21.9%, Newcastle Jets FC W win 21.7%. The pick is Central Coast Mariners W win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.