ScoreProb
1. Division Cyprus Round 9 2026

AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa

AEK Larnaca Home · Elo 1,611
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Karmiotissa Away · Elo 1,559
AEK Arena, Larnaca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AEK Larnaca win
AEK Larnaca winPick
62.7%
Draw
21.0%
Karmiotissa win
16.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

AEK Larnaca history81 matches
Karmiotissa history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why AEK Larnaca are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AEK Larnaca are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,611 against 1,559. On rating alone AEK Larnaca would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.47 goals a game over 81 matches for AEK Larnaca, against 1.45 over 44 for Karmiotissa.

  • AEK Larnaca concede fewer

    AEK Larnaca concede 0.90 a game, Karmiotissa 1.07.

  • Karmiotissa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of AEK Larnaca matches, against 52% for Karmiotissa. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AEK Larnaca
Karmiotissa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1610.6
ELO
1559.4
81
ELO · Matches
44
1610.6
Current Team ELO
1559.4
1559.4
Current Opponent ELO
1610.6
51.19
Current ELO Difference
-51.19
0.57
Expected score
0.43
81
History Matches
44
0.06
Residual Mean
0.07
54.89
Overperformance
54.94
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.60
0.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.10
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.89
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
81
Matches
44
1.68
PPG
1.59
45.7%
Win rate
45.5%
30.9%
Draw rate
22.7%
23.5%
Loss rate
31.8%
71.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.5%
39.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.3%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
21
2.00
PPG
1.19
57.9%
Win rate
28.6%
26.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
15.8%
Loss rate
38.1%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
38
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.47
Goals for per game
1.45
76.5%
Scoring rate
70.5%
48.1%
BTTS rate
43.2%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.29
81.6%
Scoring rate
61.9%
42.1%
BTTS rate
52.4%
81
History Matches
44
1.47
Goals Mean
1.45
1.25
Goals Std
1.36
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
70.5%
40.7%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.90
Goals against per game
1.07
64.2%
Conceding rate
61.4%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.24
55.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
81
History Matches
44
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.07
0.90
Conceded Std
1.03
18.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.1%
4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
44.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
44.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
81
History Matches
44
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.76
3.44
Stability score
3.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
81
Eligible Matches
44
31
Lead Matches
18
87.1%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.87
18
Trailing Matches
8
55.6%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
90.04
Rest days
196.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
49
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
3
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.93
54.49
Portability Score
51.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
81
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO51.19
PPG0.09
GF0.01
GA-0.17
PPG0.81
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches37
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate16.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches37
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches37
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches37
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-0.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.02
Eligible Matches37
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate3.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate43.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches37
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score2.70
Rest days-106.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO51.19
Current Opponent ELO-51.19
Current ELO Difference102.4
Expected score0.15
History Matches37
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AEK Larnaca

D
Krasava Ypsonas2–2AEK Larnaca31 Oct · away
Pick: AEK Larnaca 50% · missed
W
AEK Larnaca2–0Omonia Nicosia26 Oct · home
Pick: Omonia Nicosia 44% · missed
D
Aris1–1AEK Larnaca18 Oct · away
Pick: AEK Larnaca 47% · missed
W
AEK Larnaca1–0Omonia Aradippou12 Oct · home
Pick: AEK Larnaca 60% · hit
W
AEK Larnaca3–1Apoel Nicosia29 Aug · home
Pick: AEK Larnaca 55% · hit

Karmiotissa

W
Karmiotissa2–0Ermis3 Nov · home
Pick: Karmiotissa 46% · hit
W
Karmiotissa1–0Olympiakos30 Oct · home
Pick: Karmiotissa 38% · hit
L
Karmiotissa0–5Apollon Limassol25 Oct · home
Pick: Apollon Limassol 53% · hit
L
Krasava Ypsonas2–1Karmiotissa17 Oct · away
Pick: Krasava Ypsonas 40% · hit
L
Karmiotissa0–3Pafos30 Aug · home
Pick: Pafos 47% · hit

About this match

AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa meet in 1. Division on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at AEK Arena, Larnaca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: AEK Larnaca win 62.7%, draw 21.0%, Karmiotissa win 16.3%. The pick is AEK Larnaca win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.