ScoreProb
1. Division Cyprus Round 9 2026

Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou

Nea Salamis Home · Elo 1,651
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Omonia Aradippou Away · Elo 1,517
Ammochostos Stadium, Larnaca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nea Salamis win
Nea Salamis winPick
53.4%
Draw
24.0%
Omonia Aradippou win
22.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%

How much we know

Nea Salamis history49 matches
Omonia Aradippou history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Nea Salamis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nea Salamis are rated 134 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,651 against 1,517. On rating alone Nea Salamis would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Nea Salamis score far more

    1.86 goals a game over 49 matches for Nea Salamis, against 1.12 over 51 for Omonia Aradippou.

  • Nea Salamis concede fewer

    Nea Salamis concede 0.90 a game, Omonia Aradippou 1.41.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Nea Salamis matches, against 47% for Omonia Aradippou. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nea Salamis
Omonia Aradippou
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1651.0
ELO
1516.5
49
ELO · Matches
51
1651.0
Current Team ELO
1516.5
1516.5
Current Opponent ELO
1651.0
134.4
Current ELO Difference
-134.4
0.68
Expected score
0.32
49
History Matches
51
0.15
Residual Mean
0.02
60.36
Overperformance
51.17
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
3.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
1.10
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.91
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
51
2.10
PPG
1.29
61.2%
Win rate
37.3%
26.5%
Draw rate
17.6%
12.2%
Loss rate
45.1%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
49.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
26
2.09
PPG
1.19
60.9%
Win rate
30.8%
26.1%
Draw rate
26.9%
13.0%
Loss rate
42.3%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
57.7%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
23
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.86
Goals for per game
1.12
87.8%
Scoring rate
62.7%
51.0%
BTTS rate
45.1%
2.04
Goals for per game
0.92
87.0%
Scoring rate
61.5%
60.9%
BTTS rate
46.2%
49
History Matches
51
1.86
Goals Mean
1.12
1.31
Goals Std
1.13
87.8%
Scored 1+ rate
62.7%
61.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
18.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.90
Goals against per game
1.41
55.1%
Conceding rate
78.4%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.42
60.9%
Conceding rate
76.9%
49
History Matches
51
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.41
0.99
Conceded Std
1.24
26.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
44.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
44.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
51
0.83
Result entropy
0.94
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.84
17.21
Stability score
5.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
51
26
Lead Matches
9
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.74
3
Trailing Matches
18
33.3%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
90.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.54
Portability PPG Range
0.52
43.42
Portability Score
69.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO134.4
PPG0.81
GF0.74
GA-0.51
PPG0.89
PPG0.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate23.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.74
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate25.0%
Scored 2+ rate27.9%
Scored 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std1.21
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate23.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score11.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate17.9%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.43
Portability PPG Range1.02
Portability Score-25.77
Rest days-6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.88
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.69
Current Team ELO134.4
Current Opponent ELO-134.4
Current ELO Difference268.9
Expected score0.37
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nea Salamis

L
Omonia 29is Maiou1–0Nea Salamis1 Nov · away
Pick: Nea Salamis 49% · missed
D
Nea Salamis0–0Pafos26 Oct · home
Pick: Pafos 42% · missed
W
Nea Salamis4–0APEA21 Oct · home
Pick: Nea Salamis 64% · hit
L
Apollon Limassol4–2Nea Salamis17 Oct · away
Pick: Apollon Limassol 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Omonia Aradippou

L
Omonia Aradippou1–2Apoel Nicosia1 Nov · home
Pick: Apoel Nicosia 43% · hit
W
Omonia Aradippou6–3Digenis Morphou28 Oct · home
Pick: Omonia Aradippou 59% · hit
L
Anorthosis2–0Omonia Aradippou24 Oct · away
Pick: Anorthosis 41% · hit
L
Omonia Aradippou0–2AEL18 Oct · home
Pick: AEL 42% · hit
L
AEK Larnaca1–0Omonia Aradippou12 Oct · away
Pick: AEK Larnaca 60% · hit

About this match

Nea Salamis and Omonia Aradippou meet in 1. Division on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Ammochostos Stadium, Larnaca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Nea Salamis win 53.4%, draw 24.0%, Omonia Aradippou win 22.6%. The pick is Nea Salamis win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.