Agoncillo vs San Marcial
Match result probability Model pick: Agoncillo win
Agoncillo winPick
58.4%
Draw
20.0%
San Marcial win
21.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.2%
No42.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%
How much we know
Agoncillo history49 matches
San Marcial history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Agoncillo
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.4%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Agoncillo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,492 against 1,478. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Agoncillo score more
1.51 goals a game over 49 matches for Agoncillo, against 1.18 over 33 for San Marcial.
-
Agoncillo concede fewer
Agoncillo concede 1.35 a game, San Marcial 1.73.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
59% of Agoncillo matches, against 52% for San Marcial. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
San Marcial@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1492.1
ELO
1477.9
49
ELO · Matches
33
1492.1
Current Team ELO
1477.9
1477.9
Current Opponent ELO
1492.1
14.16
Current ELO Difference
-14.16
0.52
Expected score
0.48
49
History Matches
33
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.03
49.81
Overperformance
47.84
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.36
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
33
1.39
PPG
1.18
36.7%
Win rate
30.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
27.3%
34.7%
Loss rate
42.4%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
59.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
34.7%
Over 3.5 rate
39.4%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
17
1.35
PPG
1.18
34.6%
Win rate
29.4%
30.8%
Draw rate
29.4%
34.6%
Loss rate
41.2%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
26
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.51
Goals for per game
1.18
73.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
61.2%
BTTS rate
48.5%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.12
73.1%
Scoring rate
64.7%
61.5%
BTTS rate
41.2%
49
History Matches
33
1.51
Goals Mean
1.18
1.34
Goals Std
1.14
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
44.9%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.35
Goals against per game
1.73
73.5%
Conceding rate
69.7%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.76
76.9%
Conceding rate
58.8%
49
History Matches
33
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.24
Conceded Std
1.75
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.5%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.2%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
33
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.71
Goal Difference Std
2.03
0.50
Stability score
1.70
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
33
18
Lead Matches
8
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.92
10
Trailing Matches
12
30.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
188.0
Rest days
188.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.08
Portability PPG Std
—
0.17
Portability PPG Range
—
85.71
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO14.16
PPG0.21
GF0.33
GA-0.38
PPG0.17
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.33
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate6.8%
Scored 2+ rate11.6%
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.51
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches16
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score-1.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO14.16
Current Opponent ELO-14.16
Current ELO Difference28.33
Expected score0.04
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Agoncillo
W
Agoncillo1–0River Ebro1 Nov · home
Pick: Agoncillo 67% · hit W
Berceo1–3Agoncillo25 Oct · away
Pick: Agoncillo 38% · hit D
Agoncillo2–2Comillas17 Oct · home
Pick: Agoncillo 49% · missed W
Agoncillo2–0Vianés4 Oct · home
Pick: Agoncillo 40% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
San Marcial
L
La Calzada2–1San Marcial1 Nov · away
Pick: La Calzada 59% · hit W
San Marcial1–0Pradejón25 Oct · home
Pick: San Marcial 38% · hit W
Yagüe0–3San Marcial17 Oct · away
Pick: Yagüe 57% · missed D
San Marcial1–1River Ebro4 Oct · home
Pick: San Marcial 51% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Agoncillo and San Marcial meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Agoncillo win 58.4%, draw 20.0%, San Marcial win 21.5%. The pick is Agoncillo win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.