Yagüe vs La Calzada
Match result probability Model pick: La Calzada win
Yagüe win
32.1%
Draw
26.3%
La Calzada winPick
41.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.4%
No43.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.3%
Under 2.547.7%
How much we know
Yagüe history48 matches
La Calzada history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours La Calzada
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why La Calzada are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Yagüe are rated 43 Elo points higher
Elo 1,475 against 1,432. On rating alone Yagüe would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Yagüe score more
1.31 goals a game over 48 matches for Yagüe, against 1.09 over 54 for La Calzada.
-
Defences are close
Yagüe concede 1.60 a game, La Calzada 1.54.
-
Yagüe games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Yagüe matches, against 46% for La Calzada. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
La Calzada@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1475.2
ELO
1431.9
48
ELO · Matches
54
1475.2
Current Team ELO
1431.9
1431.9
Current Opponent ELO
1475.2
43.21
Current ELO Difference
-43.21
0.56
Expected score
0.44
48
History Matches
54
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
48.12
Overperformance
45.97
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.10
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
54
1.27
PPG
1.09
29.2%
Win rate
29.6%
39.6%
Draw rate
20.4%
31.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.5%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.3%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
25
1.29
PPG
0.68
29.2%
Win rate
12.0%
41.7%
Draw rate
32.0%
29.2%
Loss rate
56.0%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.31
Goals for per game
1.09
68.8%
Scoring rate
68.5%
62.5%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.54
Goals for per game
0.92
79.2%
Scoring rate
64.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
48
History Matches
54
1.31
Goals Mean
1.09
1.24
Goals Std
1.00
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
68.5%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
27.8%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.60
Goals against per game
1.54
83.3%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.58
Goals against per game
1.72
91.7%
Conceding rate
88.0%
48
History Matches
54
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.50
Conceded Std
1.21
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.3%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.4%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
54
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.46
0.81
Stability score
6.15
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
54
9
Lead Matches
16
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.77
18
Trailing Matches
16
55.6%
Non-loss rate
6.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.0
Rest days
87.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.48
Portability PPG Range
0.25
67.62
Portability Score
79.88
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO43.21
PPG0.18
GF0.22
GA0.07
PPG0.61
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate0.2%
Scored 2+ rate11.8%
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.49
Stability score-5.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate49.3%
Trailing Win Rate10.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-12.26
Rest days102.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO43.21
Current Opponent ELO-43.21
Current ELO Difference86.43
Expected score0.12
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Yagüe
W
Yagüe4–0Pradejón31 Oct · home
Pick: Yagüe 53% · hit L
Calahorra5–0Yagüe25 Oct · away
Pick: Calahorra 56% · hit L
Yagüe0–3San Marcial17 Oct · home
Pick: Yagüe 57% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
La Calzada
W
La Calzada2–1San Marcial1 Nov · home
Pick: La Calzada 59% · hit W
Cenicero0–1La Calzada25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed W
La Calzada2–1River Ebro18 Oct · home
Pick: La Calzada 62% · hit W
La Calzada1–0Comillas4 Oct · home
Pick: La Calzada 57% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Yagüe and La Calzada meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Yagüe win 32.1%, draw 26.3%, La Calzada win 41.6%. The pick is La Calzada win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.3%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.