ScoreProb
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 13 2026

Aksakovo vs Septemvri Tervel

Aksakovo Home · Elo 1,436
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Septemvri Tervel Away · Elo 1,649
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Septemvri Tervel win
Aksakovo win
20.6%
Draw
16.9%
Septemvri Tervel winPick
62.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

Aksakovo history44 matches
Septemvri Tervel history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Septemvri Tervel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Septemvri Tervel are rated 213 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,649 against 1,436. On rating alone Septemvri Tervel would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.

  • Septemvri Tervel score far more

    1.43 goals a game over 44 matches for Aksakovo, against 2.45 over 47 for Septemvri Tervel.

  • Septemvri Tervel concede fewer

    Aksakovo concede 2.00 a game, Septemvri Tervel 0.74.

  • Aksakovo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Aksakovo matches, against 53% for Septemvri Tervel. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aksakovo
Septemvri Tervel@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1436.5
ELO
1649.1
44
ELO · Matches
47
1436.5
Current Team ELO
1649.1
1649.1
Current Opponent ELO
1436.5
-212.7
Current ELO Difference
212.7
0.23
Expected score
0.77
44
History Matches
47
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.16
45.17
Overperformance
61.31
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.90
1.30
Goals for per game
2.10
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.76
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
47
1.02
PPG
2.30
29.5%
Win rate
72.3%
13.6%
Draw rate
12.8%
56.8%
Loss rate
14.9%
88.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.7%
70.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
22
1.18
PPG
2.23
36.4%
Win rate
68.2%
9.1%
Draw rate
18.2%
54.5%
Loss rate
13.6%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
22
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
2.45
70.5%
Scoring rate
83.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
36.2%
1.59
Goals for per game
2.05
68.2%
Scoring rate
81.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
40.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
47
1.43
Goals Mean
2.45
1.19
Goals Std
2.11
70.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.0%
52.3%
Scored 2+ rate
59.6%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
38.3%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
2.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
0.74
81.8%
Conceding rate
51.1%
1.86
Goals against per game
0.77
77.3%
Conceding rate
54.5%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
47
2.00
Conceded Mean
0.74
1.38
Conceded Std
0.93
61.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.9%
38.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.4%
1.86
Venue Conceded Mean
0.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
48.9%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
48.9%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
48.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
47
0.87
Result entropy
0.71
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.55
13.24
Stability score
28.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
9
Eligible Matches
12
4
Lead Matches
3
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.50
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
40.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
9
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
24
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.19
17
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.04
Portability PPG Range
0.21
95.82
Portability Score
82.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-212.7
PPG-1.28
GF-1.01
GA1.26
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.05
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate13.6%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-1.01
Goals Std-0.92
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean1.26
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Conceded 2+ rate46.5%
Conceded 3+ rate32.3%
Venue Conceded Mean1.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.59
Stability score-15.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.61
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.50
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.60
Trailing Win Rate-0.40
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.78
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score12.95
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.19
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.39
Current Team ELO-212.7
Current Opponent ELO212.7
Current ELO Difference-425.3
Expected score-0.55
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.23
Overperformance-16.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aksakovo

L
Benkovski Isperih4–1Aksakovo31 Oct · away
Pick: Benkovski Isperih 51% · hit
D
Aksakovo1–1Volov Shumen24 Oct · home
Pick: Volov Shumen 66% · missed
D
Chernolomets 19191–1Aksakovo29 Aug · away
Pick: Chernolomets 1919 70% · missed
W
Aksakovo6–1Ludogorets III26 Aug · home
Pick: Ludogorets III 68% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Septemvri Tervel

W
Septemvri Tervel1–0Cherno more II31 Oct · home
Pick: Septemvri Tervel 57% · hit
L
Chernomorets Balchik2–0Septemvri Tervel24 Oct · away
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 51% · hit
W
Dorostol0–1Septemvri Tervel21 Oct · away
Pick: Septemvri Tervel 81% · hit
D
Septemvri Tervel0–0Chernolomets 191917 Oct · home
Pick: Septemvri Tervel 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aksakovo and Septemvri Tervel meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Aksakovo win 20.6%, draw 16.9%, Septemvri Tervel win 62.5%. The pick is Septemvri Tervel win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.