ScoreProb
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 13 2026

Chernomorets Balchik vs Dorostol

Chernomorets Balchik Home · Elo 1,702
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dorostol Away · Elo 1,381
Balchik Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chernomorets Balchik win
Chernomorets Balchik winPick
89.8%
Draw
7.1%
Dorostol win
3.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes37.1%
No62.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.3%
Under 2.529.7%

How much we know

Chernomorets Balchik history48 matches
Dorostol history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (89.8%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Chernomorets Balchik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chernomorets Balchik are rated 321 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,702 against 1,381. On rating alone Chernomorets Balchik would be expected to take 86% of the points on offer.

  • Chernomorets Balchik score far more

    2.38 goals a game over 48 matches for Chernomorets Balchik, against 0.94 over 47 for Dorostol.

  • Chernomorets Balchik concede fewer

    Chernomorets Balchik concede 0.42 a game, Dorostol 1.94.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Chernomorets Balchik matches, against 53% for Dorostol. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chernomorets Balchik
Dorostol@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1702.5
ELO
1381.3
48
ELO · Matches
47
1702.5
Current Team ELO
1381.3
1381.3
Current Opponent ELO
1702.5
321.2
Current ELO Difference
-321.2
0.86
Expected score
0.14
48
History Matches
47
0.20
Residual Mean
-0.12
64.13
Overperformance
41.31
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.00
Goals against per game
4.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.80
PPG
0.40
2.90
Goals for per game
0.80
0.10
Goals against per game
3.00
90.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.41
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.93
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
47
2.44
PPG
0.94
77.1%
Win rate
25.5%
12.5%
Draw rate
17.0%
10.4%
Loss rate
57.4%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
60.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
23
2.59
PPG
0.96
81.8%
Win rate
26.1%
13.6%
Draw rate
17.4%
4.5%
Loss rate
56.5%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
22
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.38
Goals for per game
0.94
89.6%
Scoring rate
51.1%
25.0%
BTTS rate
36.2%
2.41
Goals for per game
1.13
100.0%
Scoring rate
65.2%
31.8%
BTTS rate
56.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
48
History Matches
47
2.38
Goals Mean
0.94
1.48
Goals Std
1.12
89.6%
Scored 1+ rate
51.1%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
27.7%
52.1%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
2.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.42
Goals against per game
1.94
33.3%
Conceding rate
78.7%
0.41
Goals against per game
2.04
31.8%
Conceding rate
91.3%
0.00
Goals against per game
4.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
47
0.42
Conceded Mean
1.94
0.64
Conceded Std
1.78
8.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.1%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.9%
0.41
Venue Conceded Mean
2.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
10.4%
Failed-to-score rate
48.9%
68.2%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
10.4%
Failed-to-score rate
48.9%
68.2%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
47
0.63
Result entropy
0.88
1.77
Goal Difference Std
2.37
36.63
Stability score
11.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
17
Eligible Matches
10
9
Lead Matches
1
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
5
100.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
0.10
0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
28
Normal Rest History Matches
28
2.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
16
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-4.00
5
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.03
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.06
84.90
Portability Score
94.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO321.2
PPG1.50
GF1.44
GA-1.52
PPG1.00
PPG1.63
PPG2.00
PPG2.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate45.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.39
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate59.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches1
Goals Mean1.44
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate38.5%
Scored 2+ rate39.0%
Scored 3+ rate39.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-1.52
Conceded Std-1.14
Clean-sheet rate45.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.43
Conceded 3+ rate-0.32
Venue Conceded Mean-1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-2.11
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.25
Goal Difference Std-0.60
Stability score24.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.09
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate100.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean1.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-9.22
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.20
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.50
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.54
Current Team ELO321.2
Current Opponent ELO-321.2
Current ELO Difference642.4
Expected score0.73
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.32
Overperformance22.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.48

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chernomorets Balchik

W
Devnya 20050–4Chernomorets Balchik31 Oct · away
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 38% · hit
W
Chernomorets Balchik2–0Septemvri Tervel24 Oct · home
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 51% · hit
W
Riltzi0–3Chernomorets Balchik21 Oct · away
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 68% · hit
L
Benkovski Isperih2–0Chernomorets Balchik18 Oct · away
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 54% · missed
W
Cherno more II0–1Chernomorets Balchik29 Aug · away
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 54% · hit

Dorostol

D
Dorostol1–1Chernolomets 191931 Oct · home
Pick: Chernolomets 1919 78% · missed
L
Ludogorets III3–0Dorostol24 Oct · away
Pick: Ludogorets III 88% · hit
L
Dorostol0–1Septemvri Tervel21 Oct · home
Pick: Septemvri Tervel 81% · hit
L
Dorostol0–1Septemvri Dragoevo17 Oct · home
Pick: Septemvri Dragoevo 60% · hit
L
Dorostol0–3Volov Shumen29 Aug · home
Pick: Volov Shumen 80% · hit

About this match

Chernomorets Balchik and Dorostol meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Balchik Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chernomorets Balchik win 89.8%, draw 7.1%, Dorostol win 3.1%. The pick is Chernomorets Balchik win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.3%. Both teams to score: 37.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.