ScoreProb
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 13 2026

Botev Novi Pazar vs Volov Shumen

Botev Novi Pazar Home · Elo 1,415
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Volov Shumen Away · Elo 1,614
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Botev Novi Pazar win
Botev Novi Pazar winPick
46.7%
Draw
17.6%
Volov Shumen win
35.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.2%
Under 2.526.8%

How much we know

Botev Novi Pazar history46 matches
Volov Shumen history25 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Botev Novi Pazar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Volov Shumen are rated 199 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,415. On rating alone Volov Shumen would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Volov Shumen score far more

    1.15 goals a game over 46 matches for Botev Novi Pazar, against 3.12 over 25 for Volov Shumen.

  • Volov Shumen concede fewer

    Botev Novi Pazar concede 2.37 a game, Volov Shumen 0.72.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Botev Novi Pazar matches, against 72% for Volov Shumen. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Botev Novi Pazar
Volov Shumen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1414.9
ELO
1613.8
46
ELO · Matches
25
1414.9
Current Team ELO
1613.8
1613.8
Current Opponent ELO
1414.9
-198.8
Current ELO Difference
198.8
0.24
Expected score
0.76
46
History Matches
25
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.22
44.29
Overperformance
62.44
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.34
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
4.80
2.60
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.80
2.10
Goals for per game
3.90
2.10
Goals against per game
0.30
50.0%
Win rate
90.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.90
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.59
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
2.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
25
0.85
PPG
2.28
23.9%
Win rate
72.0%
13.0%
Draw rate
12.0%
63.0%
Loss rate
16.0%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
67.4%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
56.0%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
13
1.16
PPG
1.92
32.0%
Win rate
61.5%
20.0%
Draw rate
7.7%
48.0%
Loss rate
30.8%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.78
25
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
3.12
69.6%
Scoring rate
92.0%
54.3%
BTTS rate
36.0%
1.20
Goals for per game
2.46
84.0%
Scoring rate
84.6%
64.0%
BTTS rate
30.8%
6.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
25
1.15
Goals Mean
3.12
1.20
Goals Std
2.18
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
92.0%
26.1%
Scored 2+ rate
76.0%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
52.0%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
2.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.37
Goals against per game
0.72
84.8%
Conceding rate
44.0%
1.88
Goals against per game
0.69
80.0%
Conceding rate
46.2%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
25
2.37
Conceded Mean
0.72
1.59
Conceded Std
0.92
69.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.0%
1.88
Venue Conceded Mean
0.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
56.0%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
8.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
53.8%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
56.0%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
8.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
53.8%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
56.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
25
0.82
Result entropy
0.71
2.02
Goal Difference Std
2.74
18.20
Stability score
28.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
13
Eligible Matches
12
0
Lead Matches
7
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
8
Trailing Matches
3
25.0%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.23
First Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.92
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.67
1.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
13
0.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.23
19
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.22
Portability PPG Std
—
0.43
Portability PPG Range
—
69.77
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
25
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-198.8
PPG-1.43
GF-1.97
GA1.65
PPG2.00
PPG-0.76
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate-0.41
Failed-to-score rate22.4%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches21
Goals Mean-1.97
Goals Std-0.98
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.50
Scored 3+ rate-0.41
Venue Goals Mean-1.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.01
History Matches21
Conceded Mean1.65
Conceded Std0.68
Clean-sheet rate-0.41
Conceded 2+ rate45.6%
Conceded 3+ rate46.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.94
History Matches21
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.72
Stability score-10.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.51
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-7
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.42
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.96
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.40
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.47
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.23
Current Team ELO-198.8
Current Opponent ELO198.8
Current ELO Difference-397.6
Expected score-0.52
History Matches21
Residual Mean-0.31
Overperformance-18.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Botev Novi Pazar

L
Riltzi2–0Botev Novi Pazar31 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Novi Pazar 55% · missed
W
Botev Novi Pazar2–1Svetkavitsa 1424 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Novi Pazar 41% · hit
W
Septemvri Dragoevo0–2Botev Novi Pazar21 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Novi Pazar 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Volov Shumen

W
Volov Shumen2–1Olympic Varna31 Oct · home
Pick: Volov Shumen 73% · hit
D
Aksakovo1–1Volov Shumen24 Oct · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 66% · missed
W
Volov Shumen2–1Chernolomets 191921 Oct · home
Pick: Volov Shumen 48% · hit
L
Volov Shumen0–2Chernomorets 1919 Burgas4 Oct · home
Pick: Volov Shumen 45% · missed
W
Dorostol0–3Volov Shumen29 Aug · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 80% · hit

About this match

Botev Novi Pazar and Volov Shumen meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Botev Novi Pazar win 46.7%, draw 17.6%, Volov Shumen win 35.7%. The pick is Botev Novi Pazar win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.2%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.