Cherno more II vs Devnya 2005
Match result probability Model pick: Cherno more II win
Cherno more II winPick
54.0%
Draw
20.9%
Devnya 2005 win
25.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.5%
No53.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%
How much we know
Cherno more II history45 matches
Devnya 2005 history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Cherno more II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Cherno more II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Cherno more II are rated 40 Elo points higher
Elo 1,546 against 1,505. On rating alone Cherno more II would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Cherno more II score far more
1.78 goals a game over 45 matches for Cherno more II, against 1.00 over 1 for Devnya 2005.
-
Devnya 2005 concede fewer
Cherno more II concede 1.29 a game, Devnya 2005 0.00.
-
Cherno more II games more often go over 2.5 goals
62% of Cherno more II matches, against 0% for Devnya 2005. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Devnya 2005@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1545.8
ELO
1505.5
45
ELO · Matches
1
1545.8
Current Team ELO
1505.5
1505.5
Current Opponent ELO
1545.8
40.34
Current ELO Difference
-40.34
0.56
Expected score
0.44
45
History Matches
1
0.04
Residual Mean
0.35
52.80
Overperformance
51.69
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.35
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
1
1.40
PPG
3.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
1
1.20
PPG
3.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
0.00
30.0%
Win rate
100.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.00
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
45
Matches
1
1.64
PPG
3.00
46.7%
Win rate
100.0%
24.4%
Draw rate
0.0%
28.9%
Loss rate
0.0%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
0
1.40
PPG
—
40.0%
Win rate
—
20.0%
Draw rate
—
40.0%
Loss rate
—
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
20
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.78
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
53.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.75
Goals for per game
—
80.0%
Scoring rate
—
55.0%
BTTS rate
—
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
45
History Matches
1
1.78
Goals Mean
1.00
1.40
Goals Std
—
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
48.9%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.29
Goals against per game
0.00
64.4%
Conceding rate
0.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
—
70.0%
Conceding rate
—
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
45
History Matches
1
1.29
Conceded Mean
0.00
1.20
Conceded Std
—
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
17.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
45
History Matches
1
0.96
Result entropy
0.00
1.89
Goal Difference Std
—
3.63
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
11
Eligible Matches
1
7
Lead Matches
0
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.76
Lead Points Retention
—
2
Trailing Matches
0
50.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
11
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
1.09
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
17
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
4
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.01
Portability PPG Std
—
0.02
Portability PPG Range
—
98.05
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
45
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO40.34
PPG-1.36
GF0.78
GA1.29
PPG-3.00
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches44
Clean-sheet rate-0.64
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches20
History Matches44
Goals Mean0.78
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate48.9%
Scored 3+ rate33.3%
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
History Matches44
Conceded Mean1.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.64
Conceded 2+ rate42.2%
Conceded 3+ rate17.8%
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
History Matches44
Result entropy0.96
Stability score-96.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.99
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches7
Trailing Matches2
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean1.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.55
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches25
Long Rest History Matches17
Current Team ELO40.34
Current Opponent ELO-40.34
Current ELO Difference80.68
Expected score0.12
History Matches44
Residual Mean-0.31
Overperformance1.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.45
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Cherno more II
L
Septemvri Tervel1–0Cherno more II31 Oct · away
Pick: Septemvri Tervel 57% · hit W
Cherno more II4–2Benkovski Isperih24 Oct · home
Pick: Cherno more II 40% · hit L
Cherno more II0–1Chernomorets Balchik29 Aug · home
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 54% · hit W
Cherno more II4–1Chernolomets 191926 Aug · home
Pick: Cherno more II 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Devnya 2005
L
Devnya 20050–4Chernomorets Balchik31 Oct · home
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 38% · hit L
Chernolomets 19193–1Devnya 200524 Oct · away
Pick: Chernolomets 1919 57% · hit L
Devnya 20050–3Ludogorets III17 Oct · home
Pick: Ludogorets III 45% · hit L
Devnya 20050–3Benkovski Isperih30 Aug · home
Pick: Devnya 2005 40% · missed L
Volov Shumen2–0Devnya 200526 Aug · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 63% · hit About this match
Cherno more II and Devnya 2005 meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cherno more II win 54.0%, draw 20.9%, Devnya 2005 win 25.1%. The pick is Cherno more II win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.