Al Ahly vs El Seka El Hadid
Match result probability Model pick: Al Ahly win
Al Ahly winPick
57.9%
Draw
23.4%
El Seka El Hadid win
18.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.9%
No53.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%
How much we know
Al Ahly history73 matches
El Seka El Hadid history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Al Ahly
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 10 h ahead3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
- Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.
Why Al Ahly are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al Ahly are rated 140 Elo points higher
Elo 1,639 against 1,499. On rating alone Al Ahly would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.
-
Al Ahly score far more
1.64 goals a game over 73 matches for Al Ahly, against 0.95 over 56 for El Seka El Hadid.
-
Defences are close
Al Ahly concede 0.97 a game, El Seka El Hadid 0.95.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
47% of Al Ahly matches, against 39% for El Seka El Hadid. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
El Seka El Hadid@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1639.1
ELO
1499.0
73
ELO · Matches
56
1639.1
Current Team ELO
1499.0
1499.0
Current Opponent ELO
1639.1
140.1
Current ELO Difference
-140.1
0.69
Expected score
0.31
73
History Matches
56
0.10
Residual Mean
0.00
57.77
Overperformance
49.86
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.40
2.40
Goals for per game
0.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.70
Goals for per game
0.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals 90
73
Matches
56
1.85
PPG
1.41
52.1%
Win rate
35.7%
28.8%
Draw rate
33.9%
19.2%
Loss rate
30.4%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
55.4%
46.6%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
26.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals 100
39
Matches
28
2.00
PPG
1.61
59.0%
Win rate
42.9%
23.1%
Draw rate
32.1%
17.9%
Loss rate
25.0%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
48.7%
Over 2.5 rate
32.1%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
39
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.64
Goals for per game
0.95
82.2%
Scoring rate
58.9%
53.4%
BTTS rate
41.1%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.04
82.1%
Scoring rate
60.7%
51.3%
BTTS rate
32.1%
73
History Matches
56
1.64
Goals Mean
0.95
1.35
Goals Std
0.91
82.2%
Scored 1+ rate
58.9%
42.5%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
23.3%
Scored 3+ rate
3.6%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.97
Goals against per game
0.95
63.0%
Conceding rate
60.7%
0.87
Goals against per game
0.82
61.5%
Conceding rate
50.0%
73
History Matches
56
0.97
Conceded Mean
0.95
0.95
Conceded Std
0.99
26.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
0.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.1%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.1%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
73
History Matches
56
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.27
7.61
Stability score
0.21
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
73
Eligible Matches
56
33
Lead Matches
11
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.94
16
Trailing Matches
15
62.5%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.04
Rest days
78.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
53
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
12
Competition Season Count
4
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.84
Portability PPG Std
0.15
2.60
Portability PPG Range
0.30
37.40
Portability Score
77.10
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
73
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO140.1
PPG0.44
GF0.70
GA0.03
PPG0.39
PPG2.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.70
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate23.3%
Scored 2+ rate10.3%
Scored 3+ rate19.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate1.0%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score7.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.25
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches22
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate35.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count8
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.69
Portability PPG Range2.30
Portability Score-39.70
Rest days-2.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.34
Current Team ELO140.1
Current Opponent ELO-140.1
Current ELO Difference280.2
Expected score0.38
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al Ahly
W
Al Ahly1–0El Mokawloon2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Ahly 52% · hit W
Future FC0–1Al Ahly29 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ahly 43% · hit W
Al Ahly4–0Kitara25 Oct · home
Pick: Al Ahly 65% · hit D
Al Ahly3–3Olympic El Qanah21 Oct · home
Pick: Al Ahly 52% · missed W
Kitara1–2Al Ahly17 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ahly 45% · hit El Seka El Hadid
W
Dayrout1–5El Seka El Hadid22 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed D
El Seka El Hadid0–0Ismaily SC16 Oct · home
Pick: El Seka El Hadid 48% · missed D
Haras El Hodood1–1El Seka El Hadid8 Oct · away
Pick: Haras El Hodood 45% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Al Ahly and El Seka El Hadid meet in Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Al Ahly win 57.9%, draw 23.4%, El Seka El Hadid win 18.7%. The pick is Al Ahly win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.