Ceramica Cleopatra vs Abu Qair Semad
Match result probability Model pick: Ceramica Cleopatra win
Ceramica Cleopatra winPick
55.7%
Draw
22.6%
Abu Qair Semad win
21.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.3%
No53.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.541.3%
Under 2.558.7%
How much we know
Ceramica Cleopatra history62 matches
Abu Qair Semad history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ceramica Cleopatra
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 7 h ahead3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
- Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Ceramica Cleopatra are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Abu Qair Semad are rated 47 Elo points higher
Elo 1,578 against 1,531. On rating alone Abu Qair Semad would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Ceramica Cleopatra score more
1.34 goals a game over 62 matches for Ceramica Cleopatra, against 1.15 over 53 for Abu Qair Semad.
-
Abu Qair Semad concede fewer
Ceramica Cleopatra concede 1.02 a game, Abu Qair Semad 0.66.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
35% of Ceramica Cleopatra matches, against 28% for Abu Qair Semad. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Abu Qair Semad@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1531.3
ELO
1578.0
62
ELO · Matches
53
1531.3
Current Team ELO
1578.0
1578.0
Current Opponent ELO
1531.3
-46.66
Current ELO Difference
46.66
0.43
Expected score
0.57
62
History Matches
53
0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
51.86
Overperformance
54.97
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.00
Goals against per game
0.30
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.46
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
0.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals 90
62
Matches
53
1.48
PPG
1.77
41.9%
Win rate
47.2%
22.6%
Draw rate
35.8%
35.5%
Loss rate
17.0%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.6%
35.5%
Over 2.5 rate
28.3%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
11.3%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
27
1.61
PPG
1.48
45.2%
Win rate
33.3%
25.8%
Draw rate
48.1%
29.0%
Loss rate
18.5%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
29.6%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
31
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.34
Goals for per game
1.15
72.6%
Scoring rate
73.6%
43.5%
BTTS rate
37.7%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.00
77.4%
Scoring rate
70.4%
51.6%
BTTS rate
55.6%
62
History Matches
53
1.34
Goals Mean
1.15
1.14
Goals Std
0.98
72.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.6%
41.9%
Scored 2+ rate
28.3%
12.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
0.66
66.1%
Conceding rate
49.1%
1.13
Goals against per game
0.93
67.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
62
History Matches
53
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.66
1.01
Conceded Std
0.82
25.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
11.3%
4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.7%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
50.9%
27.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
50.9%
27.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
50.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
62
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.34
2.78
Stability score
6.86
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
62
Eligible Matches
53
21
Lead Matches
18
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
5
23.5%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
75.92
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
40
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.14
1.88
Portability PPG Range
0.28
45.01
Portability Score
78.26
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
62
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-46.66
PPG-0.29
GF0.19
GA0.36
PPG0.13
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate13.6%
Scored 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches9
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score-4.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.51
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.47
Portability PPG Range1.60
Portability Score-33.25
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO-46.66
Current Opponent ELO46.66
Current ELO Difference-93.31
Expected score-0.13
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ceramica Cleopatra
W
Abu Qair Semad0–2Ceramica Cleopatra3 Nov · away
Pick: Ceramica Cleopatra 37% · hit W
Ceramica Cleopatra2–1Masr31 Oct · home
Pick: Ceramica Cleopatra 38% · hit W
Ceramica Cleopatra2–0Petrojet21 Oct · home
Pick: Ceramica Cleopatra 37% · hit L
Pyramids FC4–1Ceramica Cleopatra12 Oct · away
Pick: Pyramids FC 70% · hit L
Ceramica Cleopatra0–1AL Masry7 Oct · home
Pick: AL Masry 41% · hit Abu Qair Semad
L
Abu Qair Semad0–2Ceramica Cleopatra3 Nov · home
Pick: Ceramica Cleopatra 37% · hit L
Abu Qair Semad0–1Ghazl El Mehalla31 Oct · home
Pick: Abu Qair Semad 53% · missed D
AL Masry1–1Abu Qair Semad19 Oct · away
Pick: AL Masry 46% · missed L
Abu Qair Semad1–2Asyut Petrol13 Oct · home
Pick: Abu Qair Semad 45% · missed D
Ghazl El Mehalla1–1Abu Qair Semad8 Oct · away
Pick: Ghazl El Mehalla 36% · missed About this match
Ceramica Cleopatra and Abu Qair Semad meet in Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Arab Contractors Stadium, Cairo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Ceramica Cleopatra win 55.7%, draw 22.6%, Abu Qair Semad win 21.6%. The pick is Ceramica Cleopatra win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.3%. Both teams to score: 46.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.