ScoreProb
Iraqi League Iraq Round 13 2026

Al-Karma vs Naft Maysan

Al-Karma Home · Elo 1,576
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Naft Maysan Away · Elo 1,476
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al-Karma win
Al-Karma winPick
59.1%
Draw
22.2%
Naft Maysan win
18.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

How much we know

Al-Karma history61 matches
Naft Maysan history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Al-Karma are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al-Karma are rated 99 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,576 against 1,476. On rating alone Al-Karma would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Al-Karma score more

    1.30 goals a game over 61 matches for Al-Karma, against 1.16 over 61 for Naft Maysan.

  • Al-Karma concede fewer

    Al-Karma concede 0.80 a game, Naft Maysan 1.48.

  • Naft Maysan games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Al-Karma matches, against 51% for Naft Maysan. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Karma
Naft Maysan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1575.5
ELO
1476.0
61
ELO · Matches
61
1575.5
Current Team ELO
1476.0
1476.0
Current Opponent ELO
1575.5
99.48
Current ELO Difference
-99.48
0.64
Expected score
0.36
61
History Matches
61
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.03
54.96
Overperformance
48.08
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
0.70
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
61
1.67
PPG
1.13
44.3%
Win rate
29.5%
34.4%
Draw rate
24.6%
21.3%
Loss rate
45.9%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
37.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
16.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.5%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
33
1.88
PPG
1.12
50.0%
Win rate
30.3%
37.5%
Draw rate
21.2%
12.5%
Loss rate
48.5%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
34.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
9.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.16
73.8%
Scoring rate
67.2%
39.3%
BTTS rate
55.7%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.24
75.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
37.5%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
61
History Matches
61
1.30
Goals Mean
1.16
1.06
Goals Std
1.12
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
67.2%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
11.5%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.80
Goals against per game
1.48
50.8%
Conceding rate
82.0%
0.63
Goals against per game
1.58
46.9%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
61
History Matches
61
0.80
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.02
Conceded Std
1.08
18.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.3%
8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
49.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
49.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
49.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
61
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.55
3.76
Stability score
3.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
61
17
Lead Matches
13
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.82
11
Trailing Matches
19
27.3%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.90
Rest days
72.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
44
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
16
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.03
0.04
Portability PPG Range
0.06
96.22
Portability Score
94.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO99.48
PPG0.54
GF0.13
GA-0.67
PPG1.50
PPG0.75
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate31.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate34.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate6.6%
Scored 2+ rate4.9%
Scored 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.67
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate31.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.95
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.64
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score0.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.17
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate11.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate1.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score1.78
Rest days4.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.78
Current Team ELO99.48
Current Opponent ELO-99.48
Current ELO Difference199.0
Expected score0.28
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al-Karma

W
Al-Karma1–0Duhok30 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Karma 44% · hit
L
Al Minaa Basra2–1Al-Karma24 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Karma 36% · missed
D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya0–0Al-Karma17 Oct · away
Pick: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 40% · missed
W
Al-Karma2–0Karbala30 Aug · home
Pick: Al-Karma 70% · hit
D
Al Kahrabaa1–1Al-Karma26 Aug · away
Pick: Al-Karma 52% · missed

Naft Maysan

D
Naft Maysan0–0Zakho31 Oct · home
Pick: Zakho 53% · missed
L
Diyala2–0Naft Maysan16 Oct · away
Pick: Diyala 54% · hit
D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1–1Naft Maysan29 Aug · away
Pick: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 47% · missed
L
Al Zawra'a4–0Naft Maysan25 Aug · away
Pick: Al Zawra'a 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al-Karma and Naft Maysan meet in Iraqi League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Al-Karma win 59.1%, draw 22.2%, Naft Maysan win 18.7%. The pick is Al-Karma win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.