ScoreProb
Iraqi League Iraq Round 13 2026

Newroz vs Karbala

Newroz Home · Elo 1,536
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Karbala Away · Elo 1,401
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Newroz win
Newroz winPick
53.4%
Draw
22.4%
Karbala win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%

How much we know

Newroz history59 matches
Karbala history25 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Newroz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Newroz are rated 134 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,536 against 1,401. On rating alone Newroz would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Newroz score far more

    1.34 goals a game over 59 matches for Newroz, against 0.76 over 25 for Karbala.

  • Newroz concede fewer

    Newroz concede 1.14 a game, Karbala 1.84.

  • Newroz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Newroz matches, against 36% for Karbala. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Newroz
Karbala
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.5
ELO
1401.1
59
ELO · Matches
25
1535.5
Current Team ELO
1401.1
1401.1
Current Opponent ELO
1535.5
134.4
Current ELO Difference
-134.4
0.68
Expected score
0.32
59
History Matches
25
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.21
52.39
Overperformance
38.57
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.50
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.30
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
0.77
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
25
1.46
PPG
0.48
40.7%
Win rate
8.0%
23.7%
Draw rate
24.0%
35.6%
Loss rate
68.0%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
20.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
14
1.40
PPG
0.43
36.7%
Win rate
7.1%
30.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
33.3%
Loss rate
71.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.13
30
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
0.76
74.6%
Scoring rate
56.0%
52.5%
BTTS rate
48.0%
1.20
Goals for per game
0.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
42.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
35.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
25
1.34
Goals Mean
0.76
1.16
Goals Std
0.81
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
56.0%
39.0%
Scored 2+ rate
16.0%
11.9%
Scored 3+ rate
4.0%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.84
74.6%
Conceding rate
88.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
76.7%
Conceding rate
85.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
25
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.84
0.93
Conceded Std
1.22
28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.0%
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
25
0.98
Result entropy
0.73
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.16
2.16
Stability score
26.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
25
16
Lead Matches
3
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.22
19
Trailing Matches
12
47.4%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.24
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
40
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.20
18
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.01
Portability PPG Std
—
0.02
Portability PPG Range
—
97.67
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
25
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO134.4
PPG0.98
GF0.58
GA-0.70
PPG-0.50
PPG0.97
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches34
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate9.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches34
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate18.6%
Scored 2+ rate23.0%
Scored 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches34
Conceded Mean-0.70
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches34
Result entropy0.24
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score-24.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate81.3%
Lead Points Retention0.63
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate30.7%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.30
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO134.4
Current Opponent ELO-134.4
Current ELO Difference268.8
Expected score0.37
History Matches34
Residual Mean0.24
Overperformance13.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Newroz

D
Newroz0–0Diyala24 Oct · home
Pick: Newroz 38% · missed
W
Newroz2–0Al Minaa Basra16 Oct · home
Pick: Newroz 38% · hit
D
Newroz0–0Duhok30 Aug · home
Pick: Newroz 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Karbala

D
Karbala2–2Al Talaba30 Oct · home
Pick: Al Talaba 41% · missed
L
Duhok5–2Karbala23 Oct · away
Pick: Duhok 56% · hit
L
Karbala1–2Gharraf16 Oct · home
Pick: Gharraf 48% · hit
L
Al-Karma2–0Karbala30 Aug · away
Pick: Al-Karma 70% · hit
L
Mosul3–0Karbala26 Aug · away
Pick: Mosul 55% · hit

About this match

Newroz and Karbala meet in Iraqi League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Newroz win 53.4%, draw 22.4%, Karbala win 24.3%. The pick is Newroz win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.