ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 2 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 2 - 10 2026

Alanya 1221 FK vs Ayvalikgucu

Alanya 1221 FK Home · Elo 1,477
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ayvalikgucu Away · Elo 1,610
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ayvalikgucu win
Alanya 1221 FK win
24.5%
Draw
28.9%
Ayvalikgucu winPick
46.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.7%
No55.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.0%
Under 2.559.0%

How much we know

Alanya 1221 FK history45 matches
Ayvalikgucu history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ayvalikgucu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ayvalikgucu are rated 133 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,610 against 1,477. On rating alone Ayvalikgucu would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Ayvalikgucu score far more

    0.98 goals a game over 45 matches for Alanya 1221 FK, against 1.67 over 52 for Ayvalikgucu.

  • Ayvalikgucu concede fewer

    Alanya 1221 FK concede 1.18 a game, Ayvalikgucu 0.83.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    36% of Alanya 1221 FK matches, against 42% for Ayvalikgucu. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alanya 1221 FK
Ayvalikgucu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.8
ELO
1610.2
45
ELO · Matches
52
1476.8
Current Team ELO
1610.2
1610.2
Current Opponent ELO
1476.8
-133.3
Current ELO Difference
133.3
0.32
Expected score
0.68
45
History Matches
52
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.11
48.20
Overperformance
57.69
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
0.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.30
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.62
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
52
1.16
PPG
1.96
31.1%
Win rate
57.7%
22.2%
Draw rate
23.1%
46.7%
Loss rate
19.2%
53.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
35.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
17.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.3%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
25
1.09
PPG
1.76
27.3%
Win rate
48.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
32.0%
45.5%
Loss rate
20.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
31.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
8.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
22
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.98
Goals for per game
1.67
55.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
35.6%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.36
54.5%
Scoring rate
68.0%
36.4%
BTTS rate
40.0%
45
History Matches
52
0.98
Goals Mean
1.67
1.29
Goals Std
1.77
55.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
22.2%
Scored 2+ rate
48.1%
8.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
0.83
71.1%
Conceding rate
55.8%
1.09
Goals against per game
0.84
72.7%
Conceding rate
56.0%
45
History Matches
52
1.18
Conceded Mean
0.83
1.06
Conceded Std
0.91
31.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.2%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
0.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
44.2%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.0%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
44.2%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.0%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
44.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
52
0.96
Result entropy
0.89
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.96
4.14
Stability score
11.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
52
9
Lead Matches
22
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.92
20
Trailing Matches
6
15.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
202.9
Rest days
173.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.14
12
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.27
Portability PPG Range
1.38
78.95
Portability Score
49.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-133.3
PPG-0.81
GF-0.70
GA0.35
PPG-0.67
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate19.4%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate13.5%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.70
Goals Std-0.48
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.13
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score-7.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.15
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate-0.35
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-1.12
Portability Score29.37
Rest days29.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.89
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-133.3
Current Opponent ELO133.3
Current ELO Difference-266.6
Expected score-0.37
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alanya 1221 FK

L
Anadolu Üniversitesi5–1Alanya 1221 FK1 Nov · away
Pick: Anadolu Üniversitesi 37% · hit
L
Alanya 1221 FK1–2Kepezspor25 Oct · home
Pick: Alanya 1221 FK 42% · missed
W
Gaziemirspor1–2Alanya 1221 FK18 Oct · away
Pick: Alanya 1221 FK 35% · hit
L
Somaspor4–2Alanya 1221 FK7 Oct · away
Pick: Somaspor 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ayvalikgucu

W
Ayvalikgucu2–1Bucaspor 19281 Nov · home
Pick: Ayvalikgucu 63% · hit
L
Sarıyer1–0Ayvalikgucu27 Oct · away
Pick: Sarıyer 42% · hit
D
Nilüfer Belediye1–1Ayvalikgucu24 Oct · away
Pick: Ayvalikgucu 48% · missed
D
Ayvalikgucu0–0Karsiyaka18 Oct · home
Pick: Ayvalikgucu 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Alanya 1221 FK and Ayvalikgucu meet in 3. Lig - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Alanya 1221 FK win 24.5%, draw 28.9%, Ayvalikgucu win 46.6%. The pick is Ayvalikgucu win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.0%. Both teams to score: 44.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.