ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 2 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 2 - 10 2026

Etimesgut SK vs Altay

Etimesgut SK Home · Elo 1,530
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Altay Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Etimesgut SK win
Etimesgut SK winPick
45.1%
Draw
32.1%
Altay win
22.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.4%
Under 2.552.6%

How much we know

Etimesgut SK history45 matches
Altay history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Etimesgut SK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Etimesgut SK are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,448. On rating alone Etimesgut SK would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Etimesgut SK score more

    1.07 goals a game over 45 matches for Etimesgut SK, against 0.93 over 46 for Altay.

  • Etimesgut SK concede fewer

    Etimesgut SK concede 0.91 a game, Altay 1.43.

  • Altay games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Etimesgut SK matches, against 46% for Altay. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 28 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Etimesgut SK
Altay
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.5
ELO
1448.1
45
ELO · Matches
46
1530.5
Current Team ELO
1448.1
1448.1
Current Opponent ELO
1530.5
82.32
Current ELO Difference
-82.32
0.62
Expected score
0.38
45
History Matches
46
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.06
53.01
Overperformance
46.11
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
46
1.56
PPG
1.13
42.2%
Win rate
30.4%
28.9%
Draw rate
21.7%
28.9%
Loss rate
47.8%
51.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
23
1.52
PPG
0.83
40.0%
Win rate
21.7%
32.0%
Draw rate
17.4%
28.0%
Loss rate
60.9%
52.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
32.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
25
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.07
Goals for per game
0.93
68.9%
Scoring rate
60.9%
33.3%
BTTS rate
39.1%
1.16
Goals for per game
0.65
68.0%
Scoring rate
52.2%
36.0%
BTTS rate
43.5%
45
History Matches
46
1.07
Goals Mean
0.93
0.98
Goals Std
0.92
68.9%
Scored 1+ rate
60.9%
26.7%
Scored 2+ rate
26.1%
8.9%
Scored 3+ rate
6.5%
1.16
Venue Goals Mean
0.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.91
Goals against per game
1.43
48.9%
Conceding rate
69.6%
0.84
Goals against per game
1.83
52.0%
Conceding rate
82.6%
45
History Matches
46
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.23
Conceded Std
1.36
22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.0%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.9%
0.84
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
51.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
51.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
51.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
46
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.87
1.56
Stability score
4.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
46
16
Lead Matches
9
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.93
8
Trailing Matches
19
25.0%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
193.9
Rest days
202.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
12
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.48
Portability PPG Range
0.26
67.42
Portability Score
79.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO82.32
PPG0.43
GF0.13
GA-0.52
PPG0.69
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate30.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate8.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.6%
Scored 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.99
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score-3.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate3.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.22
Portability Score-11.68
Rest days-9.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO82.32
Current Opponent ELO-82.32
Current ELO Difference164.6
Expected score0.23
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance6.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Etimesgut SK

L
Bigaspor1–0Etimesgut SK1 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
L
Etimesgut SK0–4Gaziantep FK27 Oct · home
Pick: Etimesgut SK 39% · missed
W
Akşehirspor0–2Etimesgut SK24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
D
Etimesgut SK2–2Balıkesirspor18 Oct · home
Pick: Balıkesirspor 41% · missed
W
Tokat Bld Plevnespor1–5Etimesgut SK7 Oct · away
Pick: Etimesgut SK 39% · hit

Altay

D
Altay1–1Akşehirspor31 Oct · home
Pick: Altay 63% · missed
L
Balıkesirspor5–0Altay24 Oct · away
Pick: Balıkesirspor 55% · hit
L
Altay1–4Eskişehirspor17 Oct · home
Pick: Eskişehirspor 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Etimesgut SK and Altay meet in 3. Lig - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Etimesgut SK win 45.1%, draw 32.1%, Altay win 22.8%. The pick is Etimesgut SK win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.4%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.