ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 2 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 2 - 10 2026

Nilüfer Belediye vs Denizli İYG

Nilüfer Belediye Home · Elo 1,488
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Denizli İYG Away · Elo 1,515
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nilüfer Belediye win
Nilüfer Belediye winPick
50.6%
Draw
26.3%
Denizli İYG win
23.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.8%
No52.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.3%
Under 2.552.7%

How much we know

Nilüfer Belediye history45 matches
Denizli İYG history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Nilüfer Belediye are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Denizli İYG are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,515 against 1,488. On rating alone Denizli İYG would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Denizli İYG score more

    1.00 goals a game over 45 matches for Nilüfer Belediye, against 1.22 over 32 for Denizli İYG.

  • Denizli İYG concede fewer

    Nilüfer Belediye concede 1.29 a game, Denizli İYG 1.03.

  • Nilüfer Belediye games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Nilüfer Belediye matches, against 38% for Denizli İYG. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nilüfer Belediye
Denizli İYG
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.8
ELO
1515.0
45
ELO · Matches
32
1487.8
Current Team ELO
1515.0
1515.0
Current Opponent ELO
1487.8
-27.23
Current ELO Difference
27.23
0.46
Expected score
0.54
45
History Matches
32
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.76
Overperformance
51.35
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
32
1.18
PPG
1.59
31.1%
Win rate
46.9%
24.4%
Draw rate
18.8%
44.4%
Loss rate
34.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
56.3%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
17.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
16
1.52
PPG
1.38
42.9%
Win rate
37.5%
23.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
37.5%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
56.3%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
21
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
1.22
62.2%
Scoring rate
62.5%
48.9%
BTTS rate
34.4%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.06
61.9%
Scoring rate
62.5%
52.4%
BTTS rate
43.8%
45
History Matches
32
1.00
Goals Mean
1.22
1.01
Goals Std
1.36
62.2%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
26.7%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
8.9%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.03
77.8%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.00
81.0%
Conceding rate
68.8%
45
History Matches
32
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.03
0.98
Conceded Std
1.13
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
32
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.88
2.78
Stability score
5.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
32
11
Lead Matches
9
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.93
18
Trailing Matches
7
27.8%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
203.0
Rest days
203.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
16
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.10
Portability PPG Std
—
0.20
Portability PPG Range
—
83.67
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-27.23
PPG-0.42
GF-0.22
GA0.26
PPG0.15
PPG2.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate0.3%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.73
History Matches13
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score-2.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.77
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO-27.23
Current Opponent ELO27.23
Current ELO Difference-54.45
Expected score-0.08
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nilüfer Belediye

W
Söke 19701–7Nilüfer Belediye1 Nov · away
Pick: Nilüfer Belediye 36% · hit
W
Ankara Demirspor0–1Nilüfer Belediye28 Oct · away
Pick: Ankara Demirspor 46% · missed
D
Nilüfer Belediye1–1Ayvalikgucu24 Oct · home
Pick: Ayvalikgucu 48% · missed
D
Anadolu Üniversitesi1–1Nilüfer Belediye18 Oct · away
Pick: Anadolu Üniversitesi 38% · missed
W
Nilüfer Belediye2–0Uşak Spor7 Oct · home
Pick: Nilüfer Belediye 38% · hit

Denizli İYG

L
Denizli İYG0–6Karsiyaka1 Nov · home
Pick: Karsiyaka 46% · hit
W
Denizli İYG2–0Bigaspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Denizli İYG 61% · hit
D
Söke 19703–3Denizli İYG18 Oct · away
Pick: Söke 1970 48% · missed
L
Denizli İYG0–1Serik Spor8 Oct · home
Pick: Serik Spor 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nilüfer Belediye and Denizli İYG meet in 3. Lig - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Nilüfer Belediye win 50.6%, draw 26.3%, Denizli İYG win 23.1%. The pick is Nilüfer Belediye win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.3%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.