ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 2 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 2 - 10 2026

Bucaspor 1928 vs Söke 1970

Bucaspor 1928 Home · Elo 1,379
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Söke 1970 Away · Elo 1,450
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bucaspor 1928 win
Bucaspor 1928 winPick
50.3%
Draw
21.3%
Söke 1970 win
28.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.5%
Under 2.550.5%

How much we know

Bucaspor 1928 history52 matches
Söke 1970 history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bucaspor 1928 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Söke 1970 are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,450 against 1,379. On rating alone Söke 1970 would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.06 goals a game over 52 matches for Bucaspor 1928, against 1.09 over 45 for Söke 1970.

  • Söke 1970 concede fewer

    Bucaspor 1928 concede 1.98 a game, Söke 1970 1.38.

  • Bucaspor 1928 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Bucaspor 1928 matches, against 40% for Söke 1970. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bucaspor 1928
Söke 1970
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1378.7
ELO
1449.7
52
ELO · Matches
45
1378.7
Current Team ELO
1449.7
1449.7
Current Opponent ELO
1378.7
-70.97
Current ELO Difference
70.97
0.40
Expected score
0.60
52
History Matches
45
-0.11
Residual Mean
-0.06
41.81
Overperformance
45.98
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.10
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.61
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
45
0.77
PPG
1.11
19.2%
Win rate
28.9%
19.2%
Draw rate
24.4%
61.5%
Loss rate
46.7%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
62.2%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
36.5%
Over 3.5 rate
24.4%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
23
0.77
PPG
1.00
19.2%
Win rate
26.1%
19.2%
Draw rate
21.7%
61.5%
Loss rate
52.2%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
60.9%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
26
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.09
55.8%
Scoring rate
57.8%
48.1%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.08
Goals for per game
0.96
53.8%
Scoring rate
47.8%
46.2%
BTTS rate
30.4%
52
History Matches
45
1.06
Goals Mean
1.09
1.23
Goals Std
1.41
55.8%
Scored 1+ rate
57.8%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
22.2%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.98
Goals against per game
1.38
88.5%
Conceding rate
71.1%
2.04
Goals against per game
1.61
88.5%
Conceding rate
69.6%
52
History Matches
45
1.98
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.37
Conceded Std
1.39
55.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.6%
30.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.6%
2.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
44.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.2%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
52.2%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
44.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.2%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
52.2%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
45
0.85
Result entropy
0.96
1.81
Goal Difference Std
2.05
15.09
Stability score
3.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
45
12
Lead Matches
12
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.92
22
Trailing Matches
13
9.1%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
1.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
197.0
Rest days
202.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
30
0.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
15
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.78
Portability PPG Range
0.10
56.25
Portability Score
91.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-70.97
PPG-0.34
GF-0.03
GA0.60
PPG-0.23
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate2.0%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate6.6%
Scored 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.78
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate20.2%
Conceded 3+ rate15.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score11.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.68
Portability Score-35.05
Rest days-5.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-70.97
Current Opponent ELO70.97
Current ELO Difference-141.9
Expected score-0.20
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bucaspor 1928

L
Ayvalikgucu2–1Bucaspor 19281 Nov · away
Pick: Ayvalikgucu 63% · hit
W
Kepezspor1–3Bucaspor 192818 Oct · away
Pick: Bucaspor 1928 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Söke 1970

L
Söke 19701–7Nilüfer Belediye1 Nov · home
Pick: Nilüfer Belediye 36% · hit
L
Karsiyaka2–1Söke 197024 Oct · away
Pick: Karsiyaka 58% · hit
D
Söke 19703–3Denizli İYG18 Oct · home
Pick: Söke 1970 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bucaspor 1928 and Söke 1970 meet in 3. Lig - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bucaspor 1928 win 50.3%, draw 21.3%, Söke 1970 win 28.5%. The pick is Bucaspor 1928 win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.5%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.