ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

Albacete II vs Gimnástica Segoviana

Albacete II Home · Elo 1,602
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gimnástica Segoviana Away · Elo 1,481
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Albacete II win
Albacete II winPick
47.3%
Draw
31.4%
Gimnástica Segoviana win
21.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.7%
No55.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.2%
Under 2.555.8%

How much we know

Albacete II history57 matches
Gimnástica Segoviana history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Albacete II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Albacete II are rated 121 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,602 against 1,481. On rating alone Albacete II would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Albacete II score more

    1.39 goals a game over 57 matches for Albacete II, against 1.02 over 56 for Gimnástica Segoviana.

  • Albacete II concede fewer

    Albacete II concede 0.63 a game, Gimnástica Segoviana 1.27.

  • Gimnástica Segoviana games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Albacete II matches, against 43% for Gimnástica Segoviana. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Albacete II
Gimnástica Segoviana
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1602.4
ELO
1481.4
57
ELO · Matches
56
1602.4
Current Team ELO
1481.4
1481.4
Current Opponent ELO
1602.4
121.0
Current ELO Difference
-121.0
0.67
Expected score
0.33
57
History Matches
56
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.01
56.41
Overperformance
49.26
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.70
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
56
1.75
PPG
1.29
47.4%
Win rate
32.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
32.1%
19.3%
Loss rate
35.7%
61.4%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
31.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
26
1.89
PPG
1.19
50.0%
Win rate
30.8%
39.3%
Draw rate
26.9%
10.7%
Loss rate
42.3%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
28
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.39
Goals for per game
1.02
68.4%
Scoring rate
66.1%
31.6%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.64
Goals for per game
0.96
67.9%
Scoring rate
65.4%
28.6%
BTTS rate
53.8%
57
History Matches
56
1.39
Goals Mean
1.02
1.35
Goals Std
0.90
68.4%
Scored 1+ rate
66.1%
36.8%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
5.4%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.63
Goals against per game
1.27
47.4%
Conceding rate
69.6%
0.57
Goals against per game
1.54
39.3%
Conceding rate
80.8%
57
History Matches
56
0.63
Conceded Mean
1.27
0.76
Conceded Std
1.22
14.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
60.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
60.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
56
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.47
5.55
Stability score
0.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
56
19
Lead Matches
11
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.88
12
Trailing Matches
15
33.3%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
139.9
Rest days
78.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
34
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.03
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.09
Portability PPG Range
0.70
91.93
Portability Score
62.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO121.0
PPG0.47
GF0.37
GA-0.64
PPG0.70
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate22.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate41.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate2.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.5%
Scored 3+ rate15.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.64
Conceded Std-0.45
Clean-sheet rate22.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score5.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.15
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate2.4%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate1.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.61
Portability Score28.98
Rest days61.60
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.62
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO121.0
Current Opponent ELO-121.0
Current ELO Difference242.0
Expected score0.33
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Albacete II

L
SS Reyes2–1Albacete II1 Nov · away
Pick: SS Reyes 43% · hit
W
Albacete II2–1A Madrid III25 Oct · home
Pick: Albacete II 63% · hit
D
Getafe II2–2Albacete II18 Oct · away
Pick: Albacete II 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gimnástica Segoviana

L
Salamanca UDS1–0Gimnástica Segoviana1 Nov · away
Pick: Salamanca UDS 37% · hit
L
Gimnástica Segoviana0–1Cultural Leonesa27 Oct · home
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 43% · hit
D
Gimnástica Segoviana1–1Atlético Tordesillas24 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Tordesillas 41% · missed
D
A Madrid III1–1Gimnástica Segoviana17 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnástica Segoviana 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Albacete II and Gimnástica Segoviana meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Albacete II win 47.3%, draw 31.4%, Gimnástica Segoviana win 21.2%. The pick is Albacete II win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.2%. Both teams to score: 44.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.