ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

Atlético Paso vs RSD Alcalá

Atlético Paso Home · Elo 1,587
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
RSD Alcalá Away · Elo 1,540
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Paso win
Atlético Paso winPick
36.1%
Draw
28.1%
RSD Alcalá win
35.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%

How much we know

Atlético Paso history48 matches
RSD Alcalá history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Atlético Paso are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atlético Paso are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,587 against 1,540. On rating alone Atlético Paso would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.40 goals a game over 48 matches for Atlético Paso, against 1.51 over 53 for RSD Alcalá.

  • Atlético Paso concede fewer

    Atlético Paso concede 0.83 a game, RSD Alcalá 1.19.

  • RSD Alcalá games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Atlético Paso matches, against 55% for RSD Alcalá. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlético Paso
RSD Alcalá
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1586.6
ELO
1540.0
48
ELO · Matches
53
1586.6
Current Team ELO
1540.0
1540.0
Current Opponent ELO
1586.6
46.60
Current ELO Difference
-46.60
0.57
Expected score
0.43
48
History Matches
53
0.09
Residual Mean
0.05
56.55
Overperformance
53.27
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
0.50
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
53
1.69
PPG
1.62
43.8%
Win rate
45.3%
37.5%
Draw rate
26.4%
18.8%
Loss rate
28.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.4%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
24
2.00
PPG
1.08
56.0%
Win rate
25.0%
32.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
12.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
25
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
1.51
79.2%
Scoring rate
77.4%
45.8%
BTTS rate
50.9%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.25
80.0%
Scoring rate
70.8%
40.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
48
History Matches
53
1.40
Goals Mean
1.51
1.13
Goals Std
1.24
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
45.3%
27.1%
Scored 3+ rate
18.9%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.83
Goals against per game
1.19
58.3%
Conceding rate
67.9%
0.72
Goals against per game
1.58
52.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
48
History Matches
53
0.83
Conceded Mean
1.19
0.87
Conceded Std
1.12
20.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
2.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
53
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.85
5.03
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
53
16
Lead Matches
17
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.88
10
Trailing Matches
14
40.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
81.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.56
50.00
Portability Score
64.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO46.60
PPG0.06
GF-0.11
GA-0.36
PPG0.92
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate31.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate1.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.48
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score2.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate5.1%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate11.4%
Trailing Win Rate2.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.44
Portability Score-14.00
Rest days100.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.41
Current Team ELO46.60
Current Opponent ELO-46.60
Current ELO Difference93.20
Expected score0.13
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlético Paso

L
Navalcarnero3–1Atlético Paso1 Nov · away
Pick: Navalcarnero 40% · hit
W
Atlético Paso3–1Cordoba27 Oct · home
Pick: Cordoba 41% · missed
W
Atlético Paso3–0Real Ávila24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Ávila 39% · missed
D
Conquense2–2Atlético Paso18 Oct · away
Pick: Conquense 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

RSD Alcalá

D
Conquense2–2RSD Alcalá1 Nov · away
Pick: Conquense 37% · missed
L
RSD Alcalá1–2SS Reyes24 Oct · home
Pick: SS Reyes 40% · hit
D
RSD Alcalá0–0Real Madrid III18 Oct · home
Pick: RSD Alcalá 40% · missed
L
RSD Alcalá1–3Navalcarnero4 Oct · home
Pick: RSD Alcalá 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atlético Paso and RSD Alcalá meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Atlético Paso win 36.1%, draw 28.1%, RSD Alcalá win 35.8%. The pick is Atlético Paso win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.4%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.