ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

CF Talavera vs Conquense

CF Talavera Home · Elo 1,487
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Conquense Away · Elo 1,569
Estadio El Prado, Talavera de la Reina Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CF Talavera win
CF Talavera winPick
45.0%
Draw
30.1%
Conquense win
24.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

CF Talavera history63 matches
Conquense history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why CF Talavera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Conquense are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,487. On rating alone Conquense would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.21 goals a game over 63 matches for CF Talavera, against 1.16 over 55 for Conquense.

  • Conquense concede fewer

    CF Talavera concede 1.11 a game, Conquense 0.93.

  • CF Talavera games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of CF Talavera matches, against 33% for Conquense. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CF Talavera
Conquense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.8
ELO
1568.9
63
ELO · Matches
55
1486.8
Current Team ELO
1568.9
1568.9
Current Opponent ELO
1486.8
-82.14
Current ELO Difference
82.14
0.38
Expected score
0.62
63
History Matches
55
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.49
Overperformance
54.39
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
0.90
Goals for per game
0.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
55
1.35
PPG
1.62
34.9%
Win rate
43.6%
30.2%
Draw rate
30.9%
34.9%
Loss rate
25.5%
65.1%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
32.7%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
12.7%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
28
1.58
PPG
1.25
42.4%
Win rate
28.6%
30.3%
Draw rate
39.3%
27.3%
Loss rate
32.1%
57.6%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
33
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.21
Goals for per game
1.16
68.3%
Scoring rate
69.1%
55.6%
BTTS rate
38.2%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.00
63.6%
Scoring rate
67.9%
42.4%
BTTS rate
46.4%
63
History Matches
55
1.21
Goals Mean
1.16
1.13
Goals Std
1.00
68.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.1%
34.9%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.11
Goals against per game
0.93
76.2%
Conceding rate
58.2%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.21
63.6%
Conceding rate
67.9%
63
History Matches
55
1.11
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.01
Conceded Std
1.02
20.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.5%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.8%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.8%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
55
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.46
0.21
Stability score
2.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
55
16
Lead Matches
15
56.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.84
17
Trailing Matches
8
29.4%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
80.90
Rest days
161.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
40
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.87
Portability PPG Range
1.26
57.87
Portability Score
48.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-82.14
PPG-0.27
GF0.04
GA0.18
PPG0.33
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate2.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches8
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-2.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.37
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate16.9%
Trailing Win Rate23.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score9.40
Rest days-80.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-82.14
Current Opponent ELO82.14
Current ELO Difference-164.3
Expected score-0.23
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CF Talavera

L
A Madrid III1–0CF Talavera31 Oct · away
Pick: CF Talavera 47% · missed
W
CF Talavera2–1Salamanca UDS25 Oct · home
Pick: CF Talavera 54% · hit
D
Numancia0–0CF Talavera18 Oct · away
Pick: Numancia 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Conquense

D
Conquense2–2RSD Alcalá1 Nov · home
Pick: Conquense 37% · missed
L
Conquense0–3Castellón29 Oct · home
Pick: Castellón 46% · hit
W
Real Madrid III0–2Conquense25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid III 38% · missed
D
Conquense2–2Atlético Paso18 Oct · home
Pick: Conquense 45% · missed
L
A Madrid III3–2Conquense4 Oct · away
Pick: Conquense 48% · missed

About this match

CF Talavera and Conquense meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio El Prado, Talavera de la Reina. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: CF Talavera win 45.0%, draw 30.1%, Conquense win 24.9%. The pick is CF Talavera win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.