Guadalajara vs Navalcarnero
Guadalajara
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Navalcarnero
Match result probability Model pick: Guadalajara win
Guadalajara winPick
44.2%
Draw
26.7%
Navalcarnero win
29.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.6%
No49.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.4%
Under 2.552.6%
How much we know
Guadalajara history55 matches
Navalcarnero history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Guadalajara
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Guadalajara are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Navalcarnero are rated 45 Elo points higher
Elo 1,507 against 1,462. On rating alone Navalcarnero would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.18 goals a game over 55 matches for Guadalajara, against 1.25 over 51 for Navalcarnero.
-
Navalcarnero concede fewer
Guadalajara concede 1.36 a game, Navalcarnero 1.18.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
42% of Guadalajara matches, against 47% for Navalcarnero. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Guadalajara
Navalcarnero
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1461.6
ELO
1506.7
55
ELO · Matches
51
1461.6
Current Team ELO
1506.7
1506.7
Current Opponent ELO
1461.6
-45.14
Current ELO Difference
45.14
0.44
Expected score
0.56
55
History Matches
51
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.53
Overperformance
50.54
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
51
1.25
PPG
1.47
32.7%
Win rate
41.2%
27.3%
Draw rate
23.5%
40.0%
Loss rate
35.3%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
41.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
25.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
25
1.61
PPG
0.72
46.4%
Win rate
16.0%
21.4%
Draw rate
24.0%
32.1%
Loss rate
60.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
28
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.25
70.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
49.1%
BTTS rate
49.0%
1.36
Goals for per game
0.80
82.1%
Scoring rate
52.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
40.0%
55
History Matches
51
1.18
Goals Mean
1.25
1.01
Goals Std
1.13
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
41.2%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
13.7%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.36
Goals against per game
1.18
69.1%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.48
57.1%
Conceding rate
76.0%
55
History Matches
51
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.27
Conceded Std
1.04
38.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.4%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.7%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
51
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.49
1.11
Stability score
2.30
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
51
11
Lead Matches
13
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
12
15.4%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
81.71
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
25
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.79
Portability PPG Range
0.60
55.94
Portability Score
62.42
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-45.14
PPG-0.22
GF-0.07
GA0.19
PPG0.89
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate18.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate4.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Conceded 2+ rate6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-1.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate14.0%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-6.49
Rest days-107.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO-45.14
Current Opponent ELO45.14
Current ELO Difference-90.29
Expected score-0.13
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Guadalajara
W
Calvo Sotelo1–2Guadalajara1 Nov · away
Pick: Calvo Sotelo 41% · missed D
Guadalajara4–4Real Valladolid II25 Oct · home
Pick: Guadalajara 48% · missed L
Atlético Tordesillas3–0Guadalajara18 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Tordesillas 59% · hit D
Real Madrid III1–1Guadalajara7 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid III 44% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Navalcarnero
W
Navalcarnero3–1Atlético Paso1 Nov · home
Pick: Navalcarnero 40% · hit W
Numancia2–3Navalcarnero24 Oct · away
Pick: Numancia 60% · missed D
Salamanca UDS1–1Navalcarnero18 Oct · away
Pick: Salamanca UDS 41% · missed W
RSD Alcalá1–3Navalcarnero4 Oct · away
Pick: RSD Alcalá 52% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Guadalajara and Navalcarnero meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Guadalajara win 44.2%, draw 26.7%, Navalcarnero win 29.0%. The pick is Guadalajara win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.4%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.