ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba

Gimnasia L.P. Home · Elo 1,556
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Belgrano Cordoba Away · Elo 1,572
Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gimnasia L.P. win
Gimnasia L.P. winPick
38.4%
Draw
28.9%
Belgrano Cordoba win
32.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.1%
No56.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.5%
Under 2.559.5%

How much we know

Gimnasia L.P. history60 matches
Belgrano Cordoba history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Gimnasia L.P. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,556 against 1,572. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Belgrano Cordoba score more

    1.02 goals a game over 60 matches for Gimnasia L.P., against 1.19 over 54 for Belgrano Cordoba.

  • Belgrano Cordoba concede fewer

    Gimnasia L.P. concede 1.12 a game, Belgrano Cordoba 0.81.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Gimnasia L.P. matches, against 37% for Belgrano Cordoba. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gimnasia L.P.
Belgrano Cordoba
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1556.4
ELO
1571.9
60
ELO · Matches
54
1556.4
Current Team ELO
1571.9
1571.9
Current Opponent ELO
1556.4
-15.45
Current ELO Difference
15.45
0.48
Expected score
0.52
60
History Matches
54
0.05
Residual Mean
0.07
53.40
Overperformance
55.07
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
54
1.45
PPG
1.56
43.3%
Win rate
38.9%
15.0%
Draw rate
38.9%
41.7%
Loss rate
22.2%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.8%
38.3%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
26
1.48
PPG
1.35
44.8%
Win rate
26.9%
13.8%
Draw rate
53.8%
41.4%
Loss rate
19.2%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
29
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
1.19
65.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
36.7%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.10
Goals for per game
0.92
72.4%
Scoring rate
57.7%
37.9%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.21
70.8%
Scoring rate
70.8%
41.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
60
History Matches
54
1.02
Goals Mean
1.19
0.96
Goals Std
1.11
65.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
28.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
0.81
65.0%
Conceding rate
53.7%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.81
58.6%
Conceding rate
53.8%
1.29
Goals against per game
0.71
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
54
1.12
Conceded Mean
0.81
1.05
Conceded Std
0.92
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.4%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
0.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
54
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.48
7.91
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
54
22
Lead Matches
14
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.93
15
Trailing Matches
14
13.3%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.08
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
34
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
23
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
24
1.58
PPG
1.79
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
8.3%
Draw rate
29.2%
41.7%
Loss rate
20.8%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
24
Current Competition Matches
24
1.58
Current Competition PPG
1.79
-0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.17
Portability PPG Range
1.26
50.88
Portability Score
50.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-15.45
PPG-0.11
GF-0.17
GA0.30
PPG-0.21
PPG0.14
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score5.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.68
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.63
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score0.18
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO-15.45
Current Opponent ELO15.45
Current ELO Difference-30.89
Expected score-0.04
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gimnasia L.P.

W
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1–2Gimnasia L.P.30 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia L.P. 37% · hit
W
Huracan1–2Gimnasia L.P.15 Oct · away
Pick: Huracan 46% · missed
W
Rosario Central1–2Gimnasia L.P.29 Aug · away
Pick: Rosario Central 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Belgrano Cordoba

D
Belgrano Cordoba2–2Barracas Central1 Nov · home
Pick: Belgrano Cordoba 46% · missed
L
Aldosivi1–0Belgrano Cordoba25 Oct · away
Pick: Belgrano Cordoba 49% · missed
W
Talleres Cordoba0–1Belgrano Cordoba4 Oct · away
Pick: Belgrano Cordoba 43% · hit
D
Atletico Tucuman0–0Belgrano Cordoba30 Aug · away
Pick: Atletico Tucuman 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gimnasia L.P. and Belgrano Cordoba meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gimnasia L.P. win 38.4%, draw 28.9%, Belgrano Cordoba win 32.7%. The pick is Gimnasia L.P. win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.5%. Both teams to score: 43.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.