ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia

Boca Juniors Home · Elo 1,596
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Defensa Y Justicia Away · Elo 1,518
Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Boca Juniors win
Boca Juniors winPick
50.0%
Draw
28.1%
Defensa Y Justicia win
21.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.1%
Under 2.557.9%

How much we know

Boca Juniors history57 matches
Defensa Y Justicia history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Boca Juniors are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Boca Juniors are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,518. On rating alone Boca Juniors would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Boca Juniors score more

    1.33 goals a game over 57 matches for Boca Juniors, against 1.14 over 56 for Defensa Y Justicia.

  • Boca Juniors concede fewer

    Boca Juniors concede 0.81 a game, Defensa Y Justicia 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Boca Juniors matches, against 41% for Defensa Y Justicia. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Boca Juniors
Defensa Y Justicia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1595.7
ELO
1518.4
57
ELO · Matches
56
1595.7
Current Team ELO
1518.4
1518.4
Current Opponent ELO
1595.7
77.31
Current ELO Difference
-77.31
0.61
Expected score
0.39
57
History Matches
56
0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
55.91
Overperformance
51.26
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
56
1.61
PPG
1.32
43.9%
Win rate
32.1%
29.8%
Draw rate
35.7%
26.3%
Loss rate
32.1%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
38.6%
Over 2.5 rate
41.1%
12.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
28
2.00
PPG
1.07
55.6%
Win rate
25.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
32.1%
11.1%
Loss rate
42.9%
59.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
29.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
14.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
27
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.14
77.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
45.6%
BTTS rate
60.7%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.11
81.5%
Scoring rate
67.9%
37.0%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.06
Goals for per game
1.24
82.4%
Scoring rate
76.2%
58.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
57
History Matches
56
1.33
Goals Mean
1.14
1.13
Goals Std
1.06
77.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
35.1%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.81
Goals against per game
1.23
61.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.52
Goals against per game
1.46
44.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.19
64.7%
Conceding rate
76.2%
57
History Matches
56
0.81
Conceded Mean
1.23
0.76
Conceded Std
1.03
17.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
0.52
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.52
2.27
Stability score
0.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
56
22
Lead Matches
14
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.74
11
Trailing Matches
15
36.4%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.85
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
27
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
21
1.41
PPG
1.43
29.4%
Win rate
33.3%
52.9%
Draw rate
42.9%
17.6%
Loss rate
23.8%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
5.9%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
17
Current Competition Matches
21
1.41
Current Competition PPG
1.43
0.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.05
9
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.08
Portability PPG Range
0.83
55.29
Portability Score
58.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO77.31
PPG0.29
GF0.19
GA-0.43
PPG-0.02
PPG0.93
PPG-0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate30.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate10.1%
Scored 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.60
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.95
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score2.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate17.5%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate23.0%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches-4
Current Competition PPG-0.02
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.07
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-2.80
Rest days-0.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.46
Current Team ELO77.31
Current Opponent ELO-77.31
Current ELO Difference154.6
Expected score0.22
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Boca Juniors

W
Boca Juniors1–0River Plate1 Nov · home
Pick: Boca Juniors 40% · hit
W
Independiente0–1Boca Juniors25 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente 40% · missed
W
Vasco DA Gama1–3Boca Juniors21 Oct · away
Pick: Vasco DA Gama 39% · missed
L
Boca Juniors0–1Vasco DA Gama14 Oct · home
Pick: Boca Juniors 44% · missed
W
Boca Juniors1–0Sao Paulo9 Sep · home
Pick: Boca Juniors 44% · hit

Defensa Y Justicia

D
Defensa Y Justicia1–1Independiente2 Nov · home
Pick: Independiente 37% · missed
W
Talleres Cordoba1–2Defensa Y Justicia24 Oct · away
Pick: Defensa Y Justicia 38% · hit
L
Defensa Y Justicia0–1Instituto Cordoba16 Oct · home
Pick: Defensa Y Justicia 36% · missed
W
Defensa Y Justicia1–0Platense31 Aug · home
Pick: Defensa Y Justicia 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Boca Juniors win 50.0%, draw 28.1%, Defensa Y Justicia win 21.9%. The pick is Boca Juniors win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.1%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.