ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone C Italy Group C - 11 2026

Altavilla vs Este

Altavilla Home · Elo 1,521
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Este Away · Elo 1,539
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Este win
Altavilla win
26.9%
Draw
32.7%
Este winPick
40.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.1%
No54.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.532.2%
Under 2.567.8%

How much we know

Altavilla history34 matches
Este history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Este are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,521 against 1,539. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Este score more

    0.82 goals a game over 34 matches for Altavilla, against 1.22 over 54 for Este.

  • Altavilla concede fewer

    Altavilla concede 0.71 a game, Este 1.00.

  • Este games more often go over 2.5 goals

    15% of Altavilla matches, against 35% for Este. The model puts this match at 32% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Altavilla
Este
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.1
ELO
1539.4
34
ELO · Matches
54
1521.1
Current Team ELO
1539.4
1539.4
Current Opponent ELO
1521.1
-18.26
Current ELO Difference
18.26
0.47
Expected score
0.53
34
History Matches
54
0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
51.93
Overperformance
52.56
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.10
0.50
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
54
1.35
PPG
1.56
29.4%
Win rate
38.9%
47.1%
Draw rate
38.9%
23.5%
Loss rate
22.2%
47.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.5%
14.7%
Over 2.5 rate
35.2%
8.8%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
27
1.59
PPG
1.26
41.2%
Win rate
29.6%
35.3%
Draw rate
37.0%
23.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
52.9%
Over 1.5 rate
59.3%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
17
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.82
Goals for per game
1.22
58.8%
Scoring rate
70.4%
32.4%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.12
Goals for per game
1.00
70.6%
Scoring rate
59.3%
35.3%
BTTS rate
48.1%
34
History Matches
54
0.82
Goals Mean
1.22
0.82
Goals Std
1.05
58.8%
Scored 1+ rate
70.4%
20.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.2%
2.9%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.71
Goals against per game
1.00
55.9%
Conceding rate
68.5%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.15
58.8%
Conceding rate
74.1%
34
History Matches
54
0.71
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.71
Conceded Std
0.88
14.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.9%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.7%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
54
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.05
Goal Difference Std
1.29
3.96
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
53
7
Lead Matches
17
42.9%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
0.88
7
Trailing Matches
12
57.1%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.26
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
174.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
5
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.06
—
Portability PPG Range
0.14
—
Portability Score
89.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-18.26
PPG-0.20
GF-0.40
GA-0.29
PPG0.33
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate15.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-20
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches-20
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score1.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.39
Lead Points Retention-0.26
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate7.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days14.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-18.26
Current Opponent ELO18.26
Current ELO Difference-36.53
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-20
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Altavilla

D
Sandona0–0Altavilla1 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
D
Altavilla0–0Luparense25 Oct · home
Pick: Luparense 38% · missed
W
Brian Lignano0–2Altavilla18 Oct · away
Pick: Brian Lignano 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Este

L
Este0–1Triestina1 Nov · home
Pick: Este 39% · missed
W
Calvi Noale0–1Este25 Oct · away
Pick: Este 42% · hit
W
Este1–0LME18 Oct · home
Pick: Este 66% · hit
L
Este0–2Caldiero Terme7 Oct · home
Pick: Este 38% · missed
W
Este2–1Conegliano4 Oct · home
Pick: Este 51% · hit

About this match

Altavilla and Este meet in Serie D - Girone C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Altavilla win 26.9%, draw 32.7%, Este win 40.4%. The pick is Este win. Over 2.5 goals: 32.2%. Both teams to score: 45.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.