ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone C Italy Group C - 11 2026

Conegliano vs Brian Lignano

Conegliano Home · Elo 1,537
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brian Lignano Away · Elo 1,555
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brian Lignano win
Conegliano win
27.2%
Draw
32.4%
Brian Lignano winPick
40.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%
No51.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.0%
Under 2.559.0%

How much we know

Conegliano history34 matches
Brian Lignano history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Brian Lignano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,537 against 1,555. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Brian Lignano score more

    1.06 goals a game over 34 matches for Conegliano, against 1.54 over 50 for Brian Lignano.

  • Conegliano concede fewer

    Conegliano concede 0.82 a game, Brian Lignano 1.06.

  • Brian Lignano games more often go over 2.5 goals

    29% of Conegliano matches, against 46% for Brian Lignano. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Conegliano
Brian Lignano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.0
ELO
1555.0
34
ELO · Matches
50
1537.0
Current Team ELO
1555.0
1555.0
Current Opponent ELO
1537.0
-17.96
Current ELO Difference
17.96
0.47
Expected score
0.53
34
History Matches
50
0.05
Residual Mean
0.05
53.41
Overperformance
53.61
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.60
1.40
Goals for per game
3.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.30
1.10
Goals for per game
2.40
0.70
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.96
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
50
1.47
PPG
1.52
38.2%
Win rate
40.0%
32.4%
Draw rate
32.0%
29.4%
Loss rate
28.0%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
46.0%
8.8%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
26
1.76
PPG
1.54
47.1%
Win rate
42.3%
35.3%
Draw rate
26.9%
17.6%
Loss rate
30.8%
47.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
11.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
0.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
17
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.54
67.6%
Scoring rate
74.0%
44.1%
BTTS rate
54.0%
1.06
Goals for per game
1.69
64.7%
Scoring rate
76.9%
41.2%
BTTS rate
61.5%
34
History Matches
50
1.06
Goals Mean
1.54
0.97
Goals Std
1.42
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.0%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
5.9%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.82
Goals against per game
1.06
64.7%
Conceding rate
72.0%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.08
58.8%
Conceding rate
84.6%
34
History Matches
50
0.82
Conceded Mean
1.06
0.71
Conceded Std
0.93
17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.0%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
50
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.19
Goal Difference Std
1.71
0.55
Stability score
1.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
49
8
Lead Matches
17
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.75
5
Trailing Matches
8
60.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
4
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.14
—
Portability PPG Range
0.29
—
Portability Score
77.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-17.96
PPG-0.05
GF-0.48
GA-0.24
PPG0.23
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate25.8%
Failed-to-score rate12.2%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.48
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.02
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.52
Stability score-0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.07
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate10.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate35.0%
Trailing Win Rate7.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-17.96
Current Opponent ELO17.96
Current ELO Difference-35.91
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Conegliano

D
Legnago Salus1–1Conegliano1 Nov · away
Pick: Legnago Salus 53% · missed
W
Conegliano2–1Schio25 Oct · home
Pick: Conegliano 62% · hit
L
Este2–1Conegliano4 Oct · away
Pick: Este 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Brian Lignano

L
Brian Lignano1–2Campodarsego1 Nov · home
Pick: Brian Lignano 43% · missed
D
FC Obermais1–1Brian Lignano25 Oct · away
Pick: Brian Lignano 46% · missed
L
Brian Lignano0–2Altavilla18 Oct · home
Pick: Brian Lignano 53% · missed
L
Brian Lignano1–3Luparense4 Oct · home
Pick: Brian Lignano 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Conegliano and Brian Lignano meet in Serie D - Girone C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Conegliano win 27.2%, draw 32.4%, Brian Lignano win 40.4%. The pick is Brian Lignano win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.0%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.