ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nordost Germany Nordost - 16 2026

Altglienicke vs Tasmania Berlin

Altglienicke Home · Elo 1,596
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tasmania Berlin Away · Elo 1,541
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Altglienicke win
Altglienicke winPick
71.1%
Draw
14.0%
Tasmania Berlin win
15.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.9%
Under 2.528.1%

How much we know

Altglienicke history67 matches
Tasmania Berlin history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.1%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Altglienicke are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Altglienicke are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,541. On rating alone Altglienicke would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Tasmania Berlin score more

    1.70 goals a game over 67 matches for Altglienicke, against 2.30 over 57 for Tasmania Berlin.

  • Altglienicke concede fewer

    Altglienicke concede 1.19 a game, Tasmania Berlin 1.68.

  • Tasmania Berlin games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Altglienicke matches, against 72% for Tasmania Berlin. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Altglienicke
Tasmania Berlin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1595.9
ELO
1540.8
67
ELO · Matches
57
1595.9
Current Team ELO
1540.8
1540.8
Current Opponent ELO
1595.9
55.01
Current ELO Difference
-55.01
0.58
Expected score
0.42
67
History Matches
57
0.07
Residual Mean
0.04
55.59
Overperformance
53.32
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
3.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.50
2.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.91
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
57
1.61
PPG
1.72
43.3%
Win rate
56.1%
31.3%
Draw rate
3.5%
25.4%
Loss rate
40.4%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
91.2%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.9%
35.8%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
25
1.79
PPG
1.36
52.9%
Win rate
44.0%
20.6%
Draw rate
4.0%
26.5%
Loss rate
52.0%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
76.0%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
52.0%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.00
34
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.70
Goals for per game
2.30
80.6%
Scoring rate
80.7%
61.2%
BTTS rate
50.9%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.84
85.3%
Scoring rate
76.0%
61.8%
BTTS rate
52.0%
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
67
History Matches
57
1.70
Goals Mean
2.30
1.33
Goals Std
2.18
80.6%
Scored 1+ rate
80.7%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
57.9%
28.4%
Scored 3+ rate
36.8%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.68
74.6%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.96
70.6%
Conceding rate
76.0%
1.60
Goals against per game
3.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
57
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.68
0.95
Conceded Std
1.56
34.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
9.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.1%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
57
0.98
Result entropy
0.74
1.76
Goal Difference Std
2.91
2.23
Stability score
26.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
55
24
Lead Matches
23
79.2%
Lead Win Rate
95.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.97
19
Trailing Matches
16
36.8%
Non-loss rate
6.3%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.27
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.08
Rest days
82.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.22
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
32
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.82
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
0.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.60
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.40
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.85
Portability PPG Range
1.63
59.69
Portability Score
43.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO55.01
PPG-0.11
GF-0.60
GA-0.49
PPG1.60
PPG0.43
PPG1.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.60
Goals Std-0.86
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.61
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.99
History Matches10
Result entropy0.24
Goal Difference Std-1.16
Stability score-24.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate30.6%
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-0.79
Portability Score16.35
Rest days-8.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.72
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO55.01
Current Opponent ELO-55.01
Current ELO Difference110.0
Expected score0.16
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Altglienicke

L
Lokomotive Leipzig3–1Altglienicke30 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotive Leipzig 36% · hit
W
Altglienicke3–1Luckenwalde23 Oct · home
Pick: Altglienicke 67% · hit
W
BFC Preussen1–3Altglienicke17 Oct · away
Pick: Altglienicke 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tasmania Berlin

L
Tasmania Berlin3–4Chemnitzer FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Chemnitzer FC 59% · hit
W
RSV Eintracht1–2Tasmania Berlin24 Oct · away
Pick: RSV Eintracht 65% · missed
W
Tasmania Berlin6–0SV Babelsberg 0316 Oct · home
Pick: SV Babelsberg 03 48% · missed
D
Tasmania Berlin2–2Greifswalder FC30 Aug · home
Pick: Greifswalder FC 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Altglienicke and Tasmania Berlin meet in Regionalliga - Nordost on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Altglienicke win 71.1%, draw 14.0%, Tasmania Berlin win 15.0%. The pick is Altglienicke win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.9%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.