ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nordost Germany Nordost - 16 2026

FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs BFC Preussen

FC Carl Zeiss Jena Home · Elo 1,625
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
BFC Preussen Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Carl Zeiss Jena win
FC Carl Zeiss Jena winPick
66.2%
Draw
18.5%
BFC Preussen win
15.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.4%
No43.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%

How much we know

FC Carl Zeiss Jena history68 matches
BFC Preussen history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why FC Carl Zeiss Jena are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Carl Zeiss Jena are rated 121 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,625 against 1,504. On rating alone FC Carl Zeiss Jena would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • FC Carl Zeiss Jena score more

    1.90 goals a game over 68 matches for FC Carl Zeiss Jena, against 1.69 over 62 for BFC Preussen.

  • FC Carl Zeiss Jena concede fewer

    FC Carl Zeiss Jena concede 1.22 a game, BFC Preussen 1.45.

  • FC Carl Zeiss Jena games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of FC Carl Zeiss Jena matches, against 55% for BFC Preussen. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
BFC Preussen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1624.9
ELO
1503.8
68
ELO · Matches
62
1624.9
Current Team ELO
1503.8
1503.8
Current Opponent ELO
1624.9
121.2
Current ELO Difference
-121.2
0.67
Expected score
0.33
68
History Matches
62
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.01
56.30
Overperformance
49.51
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
62
1.93
PPG
1.44
58.8%
Win rate
40.3%
16.2%
Draw rate
22.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
37.1%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
34
2.10
PPG
1.18
64.5%
Win rate
32.4%
16.1%
Draw rate
20.6%
19.4%
Loss rate
47.1%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
61.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
31
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.90
Goals for per game
1.69
91.2%
Scoring rate
77.4%
60.3%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.56
93.5%
Scoring rate
70.6%
61.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
68
History Matches
62
1.90
Goals Mean
1.69
1.25
Goals Std
1.87
91.2%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
55.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
26.5%
Scored 3+ rate
22.6%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.45
66.2%
Conceding rate
71.0%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
64.5%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.83
40.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
62
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.25
Conceded Std
1.44
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.7%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
8.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
6.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
8.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
6.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
62
0.87
Result entropy
0.97
1.89
Goal Difference Std
2.59
13.22
Stability score
2.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
60
33
Lead Matches
23
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
65.2%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.74
16
Trailing Matches
22
37.5%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.19
Rest days
73.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
34
2.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
29
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
1.80
PPG
0.33
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
5
Current Competition Matches
6
1.80
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.17
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.88
57.18
Portability Score
41.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO121.2
PPG0.49
GF0.20
GA-0.23
PPG1.47
PPG0.92
PPG1.60
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.62
Scored 1+ rate13.8%
Scored 2+ rate18.8%
Scored 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.70
Stability score10.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate16.6%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate5.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.47
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.97
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.88
Portability Score15.57
Rest days2.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO121.2
Current Opponent ELO-121.2
Current ELO Difference242.3
Expected score0.34
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

L
Erzgebirge Aue1–0FC Carl Zeiss Jena31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 43% · missed
D
FC Carl Zeiss Jena0–0BFC Dynamo23 Oct · home
Pick: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 52% · missed
W
Luckenwalde1–2FC Carl Zeiss Jena17 Oct · away
Pick: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

BFC Preussen

W
BFC Preussen3–0FSV Zwickau31 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Zwickau 39% · missed
L
SV Babelsberg 031–0BFC Preussen23 Oct · away
Pick: SV Babelsberg 03 50% · hit
L
BFC Preussen1–3Altglienicke17 Oct · home
Pick: Altglienicke 49% · hit
D
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt1–1BFC Preussen29 Aug · away
Pick: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 66% · missed
L
BFC Dynamo2–0BFC Preussen25 Aug · away
Pick: BFC Dynamo 50% · hit

About this match

FC Carl Zeiss Jena and BFC Preussen meet in Regionalliga - Nordost on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: FC Carl Zeiss Jena win 66.2%, draw 18.5%, BFC Preussen win 15.4%. The pick is FC Carl Zeiss Jena win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.0%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.