ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nordost Germany Nordost - 16 2026

Hallescher FC vs Luckenwalde

Hallescher FC Home · Elo 1,595
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Luckenwalde Away · Elo 1,466
Leuna Chemie Stadion, Halle Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hallescher FC win
Hallescher FC winPick
64.2%
Draw
20.4%
Luckenwalde win
15.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

Hallescher FC history62 matches
Luckenwalde history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Hallescher FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hallescher FC are rated 129 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,595 against 1,466. On rating alone Hallescher FC would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Hallescher FC score far more

    1.84 goals a game over 62 matches for Hallescher FC, against 1.02 over 64 for Luckenwalde.

  • Hallescher FC concede fewer

    Hallescher FC concede 1.05 a game, Luckenwalde 1.31.

  • Hallescher FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Hallescher FC matches, against 41% for Luckenwalde. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hallescher FC
Luckenwalde
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1595.4
ELO
1466.0
62
ELO · Matches
64
1595.4
Current Team ELO
1466.0
1466.0
Current Opponent ELO
1595.4
129.4
Current ELO Difference
-129.4
0.68
Expected score
0.32
62
History Matches
64
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.03
55.68
Overperformance
48.02
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.60
1.70
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
64
1.89
PPG
1.19
56.5%
Win rate
29.7%
19.4%
Draw rate
29.7%
24.2%
Loss rate
40.6%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
37.1%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
32
2.00
PPG
1.25
61.3%
Win rate
34.4%
16.1%
Draw rate
21.9%
22.6%
Loss rate
43.8%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
51.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
31
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
1.02
82.3%
Scoring rate
67.2%
51.6%
BTTS rate
45.3%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.16
80.6%
Scoring rate
71.9%
41.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.67
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
64
1.84
Goals Mean
1.02
1.32
Goals Std
0.93
82.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.2%
58.1%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
27.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.4%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
1.31
64.5%
Conceding rate
68.8%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.47
54.8%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
60.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
62
History Matches
64
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.07
Conceded Std
1.27
25.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.9%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
17.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
17.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
64
0.90
Result entropy
0.99
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.66
10.44
Stability score
1.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
64
26
Lead Matches
16
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.79
12
Trailing Matches
22
41.7%
Non-loss rate
13.6%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.97
Rest days
73.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.83
28
Normal Rest History Matches
34
2.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
30
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
1.20
PPG
0.50
20.0%
Win rate
16.7%
60.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
83.3%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
5
Current Competition Matches
6
1.20
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.83
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.13
Portability PPG Range
0.76
55.42
Portability Score
62.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO129.4
PPG0.70
GF0.82
GA-0.26
PPG0.70
PPG0.75
PPG0.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.82
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate15.1%
Scored 2+ rate33.1%
Scored 3+ rate18.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std1.01
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.50
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score9.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate15.9%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate28.0%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.70
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.83
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.37
Portability Score-6.71
Rest days0.93
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.83
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.71
Current Team ELO129.4
Current Opponent ELO-129.4
Current ELO Difference258.8
Expected score0.36
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hallescher FC

D
Magdeburg II1–1Hallescher FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Magdeburg II 49% · missed
D
Hallescher FC2–2Lokomotive Leipzig25 Oct · home
Pick: Hallescher FC 36% · missed
W
Erzgebirge Aue0–1Hallescher FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Erzgebirge Aue 45% · missed
W
Hertha BSC II0–2Hallescher FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Hallescher FC 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Luckenwalde

D
Luckenwalde1–1Hertha BSC II30 Oct · home
Pick: Luckenwalde 45% · missed
L
Altglienicke3–1Luckenwalde23 Oct · away
Pick: Altglienicke 67% · hit
L
Luckenwalde1–2FC Carl Zeiss Jena17 Oct · home
Pick: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 58% · hit
L
Luckenwalde0–2BFC Dynamo30 Aug · home
Pick: BFC Dynamo 50% · hit
L
Luckenwalde0–5FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt25 Aug · home
Pick: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 58% · hit

About this match

Hallescher FC and Luckenwalde meet in Regionalliga - Nordost on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Leuna Chemie Stadion, Halle. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Hallescher FC win 64.2%, draw 20.4%, Luckenwalde win 15.5%. The pick is Hallescher FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.