ScoreProb
Persian Gulf Pro League Iran Round 12 2026

Aluminium Arak vs Mes Shahr-e Babak

Aluminium Arak Home · Elo 1,482
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mes Shahr-e Babak Away · Elo 1,584
Imam Khomeini, Arak Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aluminium Arak win
Aluminium Arak winPick
44.9%
Draw
30.7%
Mes Shahr-e Babak win
24.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.1%
No59.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.2%
Under 2.564.8%

How much we know

Aluminium Arak history40 matches
Mes Shahr-e Babak history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Aluminium Arak are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mes Shahr-e Babak are rated 102 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,584 against 1,482. On rating alone Mes Shahr-e Babak would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Mes Shahr-e Babak score more

    0.78 goals a game over 40 matches for Aluminium Arak, against 1.15 over 55 for Mes Shahr-e Babak.

  • Mes Shahr-e Babak concede fewer

    Aluminium Arak concede 0.98 a game, Mes Shahr-e Babak 0.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    23% of Aluminium Arak matches, against 24% for Mes Shahr-e Babak. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aluminium Arak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.3
ELO
1584.4
40
ELO · Matches
55
1482.3
Current Team ELO
1584.4
1584.4
Current Opponent ELO
1482.3
-102.1
Current ELO Difference
102.1
0.36
Expected score
0.64
40
History Matches
55
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
48.58
Overperformance
55.38
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.06
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
55
1.13
PPG
1.75
25.0%
Win rate
47.3%
37.5%
Draw rate
32.7%
37.5%
Loss rate
20.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
49.1%
22.5%
Over 2.5 rate
23.6%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
14.5%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
28
1.10
PPG
1.57
20.0%
Win rate
42.9%
50.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
30.0%
Loss rate
28.6%
45.0%
Over 1.5 rate
46.4%
5.0%
Over 2.5 rate
21.4%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
0.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
20
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.78
Goals for per game
1.15
57.5%
Scoring rate
67.3%
40.0%
BTTS rate
29.1%
0.65
Goals for per game
1.11
55.0%
Scoring rate
57.1%
35.0%
BTTS rate
21.4%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
40
History Matches
55
0.78
Goals Mean
1.15
0.79
Goals Std
1.27
57.5%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
17.5%
Scored 2+ rate
27.3%
2.5%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
0.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
0.67
65.0%
Conceding rate
49.1%
0.65
Goals against per game
0.75
60.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
0.33
Goals against per game
2.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
55
0.98
Conceded Mean
0.67
1.08
Conceded Std
0.85
17.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.7%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
0.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.9%
42.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.9%
42.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.27
Goal Difference Std
1.64
1.49
Stability score
5.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
55
8
Lead Matches
19
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.86
11
Trailing Matches
6
18.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.13
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
74.83
Rest days
73.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
0.67
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.33
44.95
Portability Score
47.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-102.1
PPG-0.62
GF-0.37
GA0.30
PPG1.67
PPG-0.47
PPG0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate2.1%
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.48
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.29
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-3.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.78
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score-2.83
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-102.1
Current Opponent ELO102.1
Current ELO Difference-204.2
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aluminium Arak

L
Foolad FC1–0Aluminium Arak30 Oct · away
Pick: Foolad FC 42% · hit
D
Aluminium Arak0–0ZOB Ahan23 Oct · home
Pick: Aluminium Arak 44% · missed
L
Sanat Naft2–1Aluminium Arak17 Oct · away
Pick: Sanat Naft 34% · hit
L
Fajr Sepasi2–1Aluminium Arak13 Oct · away
Pick: Fajr Sepasi 37% · hit
D
Aluminium Arak1–1Malavan8 Oct · home
Pick: Aluminium Arak 45% · missed

Mes Shahr-e Babak

L
Mes Shahr-e Babak1–3Paykan31 Oct · home
Pick: Mes Shahr-e Babak 42% · missed
L
Sepahan FC4–0Mes Shahr-e Babak25 Oct · away
Pick: Sepahan FC 44% · hit
L
Mes Shahr-e Babak0–3Persepolis FC19 Oct · home
Pick: Mes Shahr-e Babak 35% · missed
L
Foolad FC2–1Mes Shahr-e Babak8 Oct · away
Pick: Foolad FC 47% · hit
D
Mes Shahr-e Babak0–0Sanat Naft29 Aug · home
Pick: Mes Shahr-e Babak 38% · missed

About this match

Aluminium Arak and Mes Shahr-e Babak meet in Persian Gulf Pro League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Imam Khomeini, Arak. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Aluminium Arak win 44.9%, draw 30.7%, Mes Shahr-e Babak win 24.5%. The pick is Aluminium Arak win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.2%. Both teams to score: 40.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.