ScoreProb
Persian Gulf Pro League Iran Round 12 2026

Sepahan FC vs Malavan

Sepahan FC Home · Elo 1,563
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Malavan Away · Elo 1,539
Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium, Isfahan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sepahan FC win
Sepahan FC winPick
43.5%
Draw
30.7%
Malavan win
25.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.0%
No58.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.534.7%
Under 2.565.3%

How much we know

Sepahan FC history50 matches
Malavan history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sepahan FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,563 against 1,539. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sepahan FC score more

    1.20 goals a game over 50 matches for Sepahan FC, against 0.86 over 44 for Malavan.

  • Defences are close

    Sepahan FC concede 0.80 a game, Malavan 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    28% of Sepahan FC matches, against 25% for Malavan. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sepahan FC
Malavan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.5
ELO
1539.2
50
ELO · Matches
44
1563.5
Current Team ELO
1539.2
1539.2
Current Opponent ELO
1563.5
24.29
Current ELO Difference
-24.29
0.53
Expected score
0.47
50
History Matches
44
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
54.19
Overperformance
53.02
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
0.90
Goals for per game
0.80
0.90
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
44
1.62
PPG
1.45
42.0%
Win rate
34.1%
36.0%
Draw rate
43.2%
22.0%
Loss rate
22.7%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
28.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
6.8%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
22
1.67
PPG
1.14
45.8%
Win rate
22.7%
29.2%
Draw rate
45.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
31.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
36.4%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
9.1%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.05
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
0.86
78.0%
Scoring rate
56.8%
44.0%
BTTS rate
31.8%
1.46
Goals for per game
0.45
83.3%
Scoring rate
40.9%
54.2%
BTTS rate
22.7%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
44
1.20
Goals Mean
0.86
0.92
Goals Std
0.94
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
56.8%
32.0%
Scored 2+ rate
20.5%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
0.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
54.0%
Conceding rate
54.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.73
62.5%
Conceding rate
54.5%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
44
0.80
Conceded Mean
0.80
0.87
Conceded Std
0.94
22.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.9%
4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.2%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
59.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.2%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
59.1%
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
44
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.23
Goal Difference Std
1.36
3.04
Stability score
2.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
44
15
Lead Matches
7
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
1.00
10
Trailing Matches
15
30.0%
Non-loss rate
53.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
74.83
Rest days
73.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
35
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.51
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
14
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.79
Portability PPG Range
0.17
61.11
Portability Score
88.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO24.29
PPG0.17
GF0.34
GA0.00
PPG-0.33
PPG0.53
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.42
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate21.2%
Scored 2+ rate11.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Conceded 2+ rate6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score0.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.57
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.62
Portability Score-27.79
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO24.29
Current Opponent ELO-24.29
Current ELO Difference48.57
Expected score0.07
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sepahan FC

W
Kheybar Khorramabad1–2Sepahan FC30 Oct · away
Pick: Kheybar Khorramabad 36% · missed
W
Sepahan FC4–0Mes Shahr-e Babak25 Oct · home
Pick: Sepahan FC 44% · hit
D
Shams Azar Qazvin0–0Sepahan FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Sepahan FC 41% · missed
W
ZOB Ahan1–2Sepahan FC13 Oct · away
Pick: ZOB Ahan 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Malavan

L
Malavan1–2Chadormalu SC30 Oct · home
Pick: Malavan 56% · missed
D
Paykan1–1Malavan25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · hit
L
Malavan1–2Foolad FC13 Oct · home
Pick: Foolad FC 34% · hit
D
Aluminium Arak1–1Malavan8 Oct · away
Pick: Aluminium Arak 45% · missed
L
Persepolis FC3–0Malavan29 Aug · away
Pick: Persepolis FC 51% · hit

About this match

Sepahan FC and Malavan meet in Persian Gulf Pro League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium, Isfahan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Sepahan FC win 43.5%, draw 30.7%, Malavan win 25.8%. The pick is Sepahan FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 34.7%. Both teams to score: 42.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.