ScoreProb
Persian Gulf Pro League Iran Round 12 2026

Persepolis FC vs Fajr Sepasi

Persepolis FC Home · Elo 1,564
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fajr Sepasi Away · Elo 1,527
Azadi Stadium, Tehran Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Persepolis FC win
Persepolis FC winPick
48.9%
Draw
31.3%
Fajr Sepasi win
19.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.0%
No59.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.0%
Under 2.564.0%

How much we know

Persepolis FC history45 matches
Fajr Sepasi history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Persepolis FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Persepolis FC are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,527. On rating alone Persepolis FC would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Persepolis FC score more

    1.20 goals a game over 45 matches for Persepolis FC, against 1.00 over 43 for Fajr Sepasi.

  • Defences are close

    Persepolis FC concede 0.84 a game, Fajr Sepasi 0.86.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Persepolis FC matches, against 35% for Fajr Sepasi. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Persepolis FC
Fajr Sepasi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.7
ELO
1527.3
45
ELO · Matches
43
1563.7
Current Team ELO
1527.3
1527.3
Current Opponent ELO
1563.7
36.41
Current ELO Difference
-36.41
0.55
Expected score
0.45
45
History Matches
43
0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
54.11
Overperformance
51.38
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
43
1.67
PPG
1.47
44.4%
Win rate
39.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
27.9%
22.2%
Loss rate
32.6%
64.4%
Over 1.5 rate
55.8%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
34.9%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
7.0%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
24
2.00
PPG
1.29
55.0%
Win rate
33.3%
35.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
10.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
29.2%
5.0%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
20
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
69.8%
46.7%
BTTS rate
41.9%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
70.8%
35.0%
BTTS rate
45.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
45
History Matches
43
1.20
Goals Mean
1.00
0.88
Goals Std
0.94
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.8%
31.1%
Scored 2+ rate
20.9%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
4.7%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.84
Goals against per game
0.86
53.3%
Conceding rate
60.5%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.96
40.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
45
History Matches
43
0.84
Conceded Mean
0.86
1.01
Conceded Std
0.82
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.3%
8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.3%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
43
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.34
Goal Difference Std
1.34
3.44
Stability score
0.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
42
16
Lead Matches
8
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.63
9
Trailing Matches
5
22.2%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
73.92
Rest days
73.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
15
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.67
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
7
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.62
Portability PPG Range
0.45
65.31
Portability Score
72.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO36.41
PPG0.20
GF0.20
GA-0.02
PPG0.33
PPG0.71
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate30.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate10.2%
Scored 2+ rate10.2%
Scored 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score2.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.57
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate31.3%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.38
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-6.80
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO36.41
Current Opponent ELO-36.41
Current ELO Difference72.83
Expected score0.10
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Persepolis FC

L
Persepolis FC0–1Foolad FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Persepolis FC 44% · missed
W
Mes Shahr-e Babak0–3Persepolis FC19 Oct · away
Pick: Mes Shahr-e Babak 35% · missed
D
Kheybar Khorramabad0–0Persepolis FC14 Oct · away
Pick: Persepolis FC 45% · missed
W
Persepolis FC3–0Malavan29 Aug · home
Pick: Persepolis FC 51% · hit
L
Tractor Sazi1–0Persepolis FC24 Aug · away
Pick: Tractor Sazi 43% · hit

Fajr Sepasi

D
Nassaji Mazandaran2–2Fajr Sepasi25 Oct · away
Pick: Nassaji Mazandaran 42% · missed
W
Fajr Sepasi2–0Paykan19 Oct · home
Pick: Fajr Sepasi 42% · hit
W
Fajr Sepasi2–1Aluminium Arak13 Oct · home
Pick: Fajr Sepasi 37% · hit
D
Fajr Sepasi0–0ZOB Ahan29 Aug · home
Pick: Fajr Sepasi 45% · missed
W
Malavan0–1Fajr Sepasi24 Aug · away
Pick: Malavan 46% · missed

About this match

Persepolis FC and Fajr Sepasi meet in Persian Gulf Pro League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Azadi Stadium, Tehran. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Persepolis FC win 48.9%, draw 31.3%, Fajr Sepasi win 19.8%. The pick is Persepolis FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.0%. Both teams to score: 41.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.