Amtat FC vs Erchim
Amtat FC
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Erchim
Match result probability Model pick: Amtat FC win
Amtat FC winPick
44.6%
Draw
22.0%
Erchim win
33.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.9%
No48.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%
How much we know
Amtat FC history0 matches
Erchim history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Amtat FC
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 07:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre5 Nov · 08:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Amtat FC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Amtat FC are rated 83 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,417. On rating alone Amtat FC would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Amtat FC
Erchim
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1417.0
0
ELO · Matches
14
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1417.0
1417.0
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
82.98
Current ELO Difference
-82.98
0.62
Expected score
0.38
0
History Matches
14
—
Residual Mean
-0.30
—
Overperformance
37.84
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.42
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
0.00
—
Goals for per game
0.80
—
Goals against per game
5.20
—
Win rate
0.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
0.10
—
Goals for per game
1.10
—
Goals against per game
4.10
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.10
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.88
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
14
—
PPG
0.43
—
Win rate
7.1%
—
Draw rate
21.4%
—
Loss rate
71.4%
—
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
—
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
—
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.13
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
7
—
PPG
0.71
—
Win rate
14.3%
—
Draw rate
28.6%
—
Loss rate
57.1%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
—
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.26
0
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.07
—
Scoring rate
57.1%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
—
Goals for per game
1.43
—
Scoring rate
71.4%
—
BTTS rate
57.1%
0
History Matches
14
—
Goals Mean
1.07
—
Goals Std
1.22
—
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
—
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
—
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
3.14
—
Conceding rate
85.7%
—
Goals against per game
3.57
—
Conceding rate
85.7%
0
History Matches
14
—
Conceded Mean
3.14
—
Conceded Std
2.90
—
Conceded 2+ rate
71.4%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
57.1%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
3.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
14
—
Result entropy
0.69
—
Goal Difference Std
3.13
—
Stability score
30.92
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
13
0
Lead Matches
1
—
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.00
0
Trailing Matches
4
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.23
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
483.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
8
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.25
0
Long Rest History Matches
3
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO82.98
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
History Matches-7
History Matches-14
History Matches-14
History Matches-14
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-1
Trailing Matches-4
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest History Matches-3
Current Team ELO82.98
Current Opponent ELO-82.98
Current ELO Difference166.0
Expected score0.23
History Matches-14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Amtat FC
D
Ulaangom City1–1Amtat FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Ulaangom City 57% · missed W
Amtat FC5–3Khovd28 Oct · home
Pick: Khovd 45% · missed W
Khovd Western1–3Amtat FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Khovd Western 57% · missed L
Amtat FC2–3Khovd Western19 Oct · home
Pick: Amtat FC 38% · missed W
Amtat FC4–2Ulaangom City15 Oct · home
Pick: Ulaangom City 45% · missed Erchim
W
Erchim5–1Ulaangom City28 Oct · home
Pick: Ulaangom City 49% · missed W
Khovd3–4Erchim24 Oct · away
Pick: Khovd 63% · missed L
Hunters5–1Erchim18 Oct · away
Pick: Hunters 80% · hit L
Deren5–0Erchim14 Oct · away
Pick: Deren 88% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Amtat FC and Erchim meet in Premier League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Amtat FC win 44.6%, draw 22.0%, Erchim win 33.4%. The pick is Amtat FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.0%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.